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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

Sturm GrazSturm Graz0 – 1FenerbahçeFenerbahçe

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Fenerbahçe was the model's favourite outcome (40%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

Match analysis

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe was played on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Merkur Arena, Graz. Before kick-off, our model gave Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fenerbahçe 40%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.6%), ahead of 0-1 (10.2%) and 1-0 (9.3%).

Over their last 5 matches, Sturm Graz have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 2. Recent momentum is clearly with Fenerbahçe. On average Sturm Graz score 2.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Fenerbahçe score 2.00 and concede 0.40.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sturm Graz, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz (Aug 5, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sturm Graz or draw" stands at 60%, "Fenerbahçe or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

34%
Sturm Graz (Win)
26%
Draw
40%
Fenerbahçe (Win)

Double chance

60%
Sturm Graz or draw
66%
Fenerbahçe or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Sturm Graz – Fenerbahçe. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Sturm Graz 1-1 Fenerbahçe12.6%
Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe10.2%
Sturm Graz 1-0 Fenerbahçe9.3%
Sturm Graz 1-2 Fenerbahçe8.5%
Sturm Graz 2-1 Fenerbahçe7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.58 goals in total (1.23 for Sturm Graz, 1.35 for Fenerbahçe): over 2.5 goals has a 48% probability and both teams to score 52%. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Fenerbahçe in 29%.

Probability
Sturm Graz expected goals1.23
Fenerbahçe expected goals1.35
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Sturm Graz clean sheet26%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet29%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Sturm Graz

DateOpponentScore
Aug 5, 2026Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League0-2L
Jul 28, 2026Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Champions League2-0W
Jul 21, 2026Heart Of Midlothian · UEFA Champions League4-0W
Jul 8, 2026Kalsdorf · Club Friendlies4-1W
Jul 3, 2026FK Košice · Club Friendlies2-2D

Fenerbahçe

DateOpponentScore
Aug 5, 2026Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League2-0W
Jul 29, 2026Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Jul 21, 2026Gornik Zabrze · UEFA Champions League1-0W
Jul 14, 2026Lask Linz · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jul 11, 2026Pogon Szczecin · Club Friendlies4-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 5, 2026Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm GrazUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Sturm Graz

No absences reported.

Fenerbahçe

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fenerbahçe 40%. Fenerbahçe are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

1-1 (12.6%), followed by 0-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%), 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

The probability that both Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe score is 52%. Sturm Graz have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fenerbahçe 29%.

How many goals should we expect in Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?

The model expects 2.58 goals (1.23 for Sturm Graz, 1.35 for Fenerbahçe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.

When and where is Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe played?

Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Merkur Arena, Graz.

What form are Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe in?

Sturm Graz: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded). Fenerbahçe: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sturm Graz, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz (Aug 5, 2026).

What was the Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Fenerbahçe was the model's favourite outcome (40%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (48%): correct.

How is the Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.23 for Sturm Graz, 1.35 for Fenerbahçe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained