UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Lyon vs Sparta Praha: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lyon 3-0 Sparta Praha. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lyon at 70%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): correct.
Match analysis
Lyon and Sparta Praha met on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Groupama Stadium, Lyon. Before kick-off, our model gave Lyon a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sparta Praha 12%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Sparta Praha have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Lyon score 1.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Sparta Praha score 2.00 and concede 2.20.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lyon, 1 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sparta Praha 2-1 Lyon (Aug 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Lyon or draw" stands at 88%, "Sparta Praha or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 82%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lyon – Sparta Praha. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lyon 2-0 Sparta Praha | 12.6% |
| Lyon 1-0 Sparta Praha | 11.5% |
| Lyon 2-1 Sparta Praha | 9.5% |
| Lyon 3-0 Sparta Praha | 9.2% |
| Lyon 1-1 Sparta Praha | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.19 expected goals for Lyon and 0.76 for Sparta Praha, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 57% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Lyon keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Sparta Praha in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lyon expected goals | 2.19 |
| Sparta Praha expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 47% |
| Sparta Praha clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis · Club Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Jul 24, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Slavia Praha · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Servette FC · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Sparta Praha
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Lyon · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Opava · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Mar 19, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 12, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · UEFA Conference League | 1-2 | L |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Legia Warszawa · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha 2-1 Lyon | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
Lyon
No absences reported.
Sparta Praha
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Kairat Almaty 0-1 Levski SofiaAug 11, 2026
- Sabah FA 4-0 AarhusAug 11, 2026
- Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Union St. GilloiseAug 11, 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Dinamo ZagrebAug 11, 2026
- NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Olympiakos PiraeusAug 11, 2026
- FK Crvena Zvezda 0-2 Hapoel Beer ShevaAug 11, 2026
- Celje 2-0 Ararat-ArmeniaAug 11, 2026
- Slovan Bratislava 2-0 Mjallby AIFAug 11, 2026
- Sturm Graz 0-1 FenerbahçeAug 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lyon vs Sparta Praha prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lyon a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sparta Praha 12%. Lyon are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Lyon vs Sparta Praha?
2-0 (12.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.2%) and 1-1 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Sparta Praha?
The probability that both Lyon and Sparta Praha score is 47%. Lyon have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sparta Praha 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Lyon vs Sparta Praha?
The model expects 2.95 goals (2.19 for Lyon, 0.76 for Sparta Praha). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 57%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Lyon vs Sparta Praha played?
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Groupama Stadium, Lyon.
What form are Lyon and Sparta Praha in?
Lyon: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded). Sparta Praha: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Sparta Praha?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lyon, 1 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sparta Praha 2-1 Lyon (Aug 4, 2026).
What was the Lyon vs Sparta Praha result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lyon 3-0 Sparta Praha. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lyon at 70%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.2%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (57%): correct.
How is the Lyon vs Sparta Praha prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.19 for Lyon, 0.76 for Sparta Praha) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lyon predictions
- All Sparta Praha predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology