UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk: 2-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo Minsk. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Neftchi Baku (49%), while victory for Dinamo Minsk was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk was played on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Palms Sports Arena, Baku. Before kick-off, our model gave Neftchi Baku a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dinamo Minsk 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Neftchi Baku have won just one of their last 3 matches (0 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Dinamo Minsk have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Dinamo Minsk. On average Neftchi Baku score 1.33 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Dinamo Minsk score 1.60 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Neftchi Baku or draw" stands at 74%, "Dinamo Minsk or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Neftchi Baku – Dinamo Minsk. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Neftchi Baku 1-1 Dinamo Minsk | 12.0% |
| Neftchi Baku 1-0 Dinamo Minsk | 11.2% |
| Neftchi Baku 2-1 Dinamo Minsk | 9.4% |
| Neftchi Baku 2-0 Dinamo Minsk | 8.8% |
| Neftchi Baku 0-1 Dinamo Minsk | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.63 goals in total (1.56 for Neftchi Baku, 1.07 for Dinamo Minsk): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Neftchi Baku keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Dinamo Minsk in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Neftchi Baku expected goals | 1.56 |
| Dinamo Minsk expected goals | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Neftchi Baku clean sheet | 34% |
| Dinamo Minsk clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Neftchi Baku
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Radnicki NIS · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | FK Partizan · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 2, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Dinamo Minsk
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Sileks · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Sileks · UEFA Conference League | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 28, 2026 | FC Minsk · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Baranovichi · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Neftchi Baku
No absences reported.
Dinamo Minsk
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- IFK Goteborg 1-2 FC Levadia TallinnJul 21, 2026
- Floriana 1-1 DritaJul 21, 2026
- Atert Bissen 2-6 Gyori ETO FCJul 21, 2026
- Bohemians 2-1 BallkaniJul 22, 2026
- Başakşehir 1-1 Inter TurkuJul 22, 2026
- Vardar Skopje 2-3 RigaJul 22, 2026
- Spartak Trnava 0-0 CSKA 1948Jul 22, 2026
- Železničar Pančevo 0-1 SC BragaJul 22, 2026
- Malisheva 2-0 HibernianJul 23, 2026
- FK Liepaja 0-2 Austria ViennaJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Neftchi Baku a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dinamo Minsk 26%. Neftchi Baku are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?
The probability that both Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk score is 52%. Neftchi Baku have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Dinamo Minsk 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.56 for Neftchi Baku, 1.07 for Dinamo Minsk). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk played?
Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Palms Sports Arena, Baku.
What form are Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk in?
Neftchi Baku: 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches (4 scored, 3 conceded). Dinamo Minsk: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
What was the Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo Minsk. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Neftchi Baku (49%), while victory for Dinamo Minsk was rated at only 26%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.56 for Neftchi Baku, 1.07 for Dinamo Minsk) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Neftchi Baku predictions
- All Dinamo Minsk predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology