UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Vardar Skopje vs Riga: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Vardar Skopje 2-3 Riga. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Riga was the model's favourite outcome (40%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Vardar Skopje vs Riga was played on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Gradski Park, Skopje. Before kick-off, our model gave Vardar Skopje a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Riga 40%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.4%), ahead of 0-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (8.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Vardar Skopje have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Riga have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Vardar Skopje score 2.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Riga score 2.00 and concede 1.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Vardar Skopje and Riga: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Vardar Skopje or draw" stands at 60%, "Riga or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 74%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Vardar Skopje – Riga. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vardar Skopje 1-1 Riga | 12.4% |
| Vardar Skopje 0-1 Riga | 9.8% |
| Vardar Skopje 1-0 Riga | 8.9% |
| Vardar Skopje 1-2 Riga | 8.6% |
| Vardar Skopje 2-1 Riga | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.26 for Vardar Skopje, 1.39 for Riga): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 54%. Vardar Skopje keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Riga in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Vardar Skopje expected goals | 1.26 |
| Riga expected goals | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Vardar Skopje clean sheet | 25% |
| Riga clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Vardar Skopje
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | KuPS · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | KuPS · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Virtus · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | La Fiorita · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Osogovo · Club Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Riga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Legia Warszawa · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Flora Tallinn · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Feb 12, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Vardar Skopje and Riga: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Vardar Skopje
No absences reported.
Riga
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Neftchi Baku 2-4 Dinamo MinskJul 22, 2026
- Bohemians 2-1 BallkaniJul 22, 2026
- Başakşehir 1-1 Inter TurkuJul 22, 2026
- Spartak Trnava 0-0 CSKA 1948Jul 22, 2026
- Železničar Pančevo 0-1 SC BragaJul 22, 2026
- Malisheva 2-0 HibernianJul 23, 2026
- FK Liepaja 0-2 Austria ViennaJul 23, 2026
- Alashkert 1-1 CFR 1907 ClujJul 23, 2026
- Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol KostanayJul 23, 2026
- Flora Tallinn 1-0 The New SaintsJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Vardar Skopje vs Riga prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Vardar Skopje a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Riga 40%. Riga are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Vardar Skopje vs Riga?
1-1 (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Vardar Skopje vs Riga?
The probability that both Vardar Skopje and Riga score is 54%. Vardar Skopje have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Riga 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Vardar Skopje vs Riga?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.26 for Vardar Skopje, 1.39 for Riga). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Vardar Skopje vs Riga played?
Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Gradski Park, Skopje.
What form are Vardar Skopje and Riga in?
Vardar Skopje: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded). Riga: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What was the Vardar Skopje vs Riga result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Vardar Skopje 2-3 Riga. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Riga was the model's favourite outcome (40%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Vardar Skopje vs Riga prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.26 for Vardar Skopje, 1.39 for Riga) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Vardar Skopje predictions
- All Riga predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology