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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)

Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

PanevėžysPanevėžys1 – 1FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Panevėžys (49%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay met on Thursday, July 23, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: Aukstaitijos Stadium, Panevezys. Before kick-off, our model gave Panevėžys a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FK Tobol Kostanay 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

Panevėžys are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 3. FK Tobol Kostanay have won just one of their last 4 matches (1 draw, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 5. Panevėžys therefore arrive in far better shape than FK Tobol Kostanay. On average Panevėžys score 2.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; FK Tobol Kostanay score 0.50 and concede 1.25.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Panevėžys or draw" stands at 74%, "FK Tobol Kostanay or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

49%
Panevėžys (Win)
25%
Draw
26%
FK Tobol Kostanay (Win)

Double chance

74%
Panevėžys or draw
51%
FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Panevėžys – FK Tobol Kostanay. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay12.0%
Panevėžys 1-0 FK Tobol Kostanay11.3%
Panevėžys 2-1 FK Tobol Kostanay9.4%
Panevėžys 2-0 FK Tobol Kostanay8.9%
Panevėžys 0-1 FK Tobol Kostanay7.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.57 expected goals for Panevėžys and 1.06 for FK Tobol Kostanay, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Panevėžys keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, FK Tobol Kostanay in 21%.

Probability
Panevėžys expected goals1.57
FK Tobol Kostanay expected goals1.06
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Panevėžys clean sheet35%
FK Tobol Kostanay clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Panevėžys

DateOpponentScore
Feb 11, 2026TransINVEST Vilnius · Club Friendlies4-1W
Feb 7, 2026Metta / LU · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jan 31, 2026Tukums · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jan 24, 2026FS Jelgava · Club Friendlies2-0W
Jan 17, 2026BFC Daugavpils · Club Friendlies1-0W

FK Tobol Kostanay

DateOpponentScore
Feb 13, 2026Nizhny Novgorod · Club Friendlies1-2L
Feb 8, 2026Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · Club Friendlies0-3L
Jan 25, 2026Slavia Sofia · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jan 15, 2026Napredak · Club Friendlies0-0D

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Panevėžys

No absences reported.

FK Tobol Kostanay

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Panevėžys a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FK Tobol Kostanay 26%. Panevėžys are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.6%).

Will both teams score in Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

The probability that both Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay score is 52%. Panevėžys have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FK Tobol Kostanay 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?

The model expects 2.63 goals (1.57 for Panevėžys, 1.06 for FK Tobol Kostanay). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay played?

Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Aukstaitijos Stadium, Panevezys.

What form are Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay in?

Panevėžys: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded). FK Tobol Kostanay: 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 4 matches (2 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Panevėžys (49%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (12.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.57 for Panevėžys, 1.06 for FK Tobol Kostanay) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained