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UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)

AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca0 – 1Beitar JerusalemBeitar Jerusalem

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AEK Larnaca (63%), while victory for Beitar Jerusalem was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.

Match analysis

AEK Larnaca and Beitar Jerusalem met on Thursday, July 23, 2026, a UEFA Conference League fixture. Venue: AEK Arena, Larnaca. Before kick-off, our model gave AEK Larnaca a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Beitar Jerusalem 16%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.4%) and 1-1 (10.1%).

AEK Larnaca have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Beitar Jerusalem have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Beitar Jerusalem therefore arrive in far better shape than AEK Larnaca. On average AEK Larnaca score 1.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Beitar Jerusalem score 2.00 and concede 1.60.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AEK Larnaca, 0 for Beitar Jerusalem and 1 draw. In double chance terms, "AEK Larnaca or draw" stands at 84%, "Beitar Jerusalem or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 79%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

63%
AEK Larnaca (Win)
21%
Draw
16%
Beitar Jerusalem (Win)

Double chance

84%
AEK Larnaca or draw
37%
Beitar Jerusalem or draw
79%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as AEK Larnaca – Beitar Jerusalem. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
AEK Larnaca 1-0 Beitar Jerusalem11.8%
AEK Larnaca 2-0 Beitar Jerusalem11.4%
AEK Larnaca 1-1 Beitar Jerusalem10.1%
AEK Larnaca 2-1 Beitar Jerusalem9.8%
AEK Larnaca 3-0 Beitar Jerusalem7.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.94 expected goals for AEK Larnaca and 0.86 for Beitar Jerusalem, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 49%. AEK Larnaca keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Beitar Jerusalem in 14%.

Probability
AEK Larnaca expected goals1.94
Beitar Jerusalem expected goals0.86
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
AEK Larnaca clean sheet42%
Beitar Jerusalem clean sheet14%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

AEK Larnaca

DateOpponentScore
Jul 10, 2026Ajax · Club Friendlies0-1L
Jul 7, 2026PAOK · Club Friendlies2-3L
Jul 4, 2026Helmond Sport · Club Friendlies2-1W
Mar 19, 2026Crystal Palace · UEFA Conference League1-2L
Mar 12, 2026Crystal Palace · UEFA Conference League0-0D

Beitar Jerusalem

DateOpponentScore
Jul 7, 2026Arda Kardzhali · Club Friendlies0-0D
Jul 3, 2026Botev Vratsa · Club Friendlies2-2D
Aug 14, 2025Riga · UEFA Conference League3-1W
Aug 7, 2025Riga · UEFA Conference League0-3L
Jul 31, 2025Sutjeska · UEFA Conference League5-2W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
AEK Larnaca8126

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AEK Larnaca, 0 for Beitar Jerusalem and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

AEK Larnaca

No absences reported.

Beitar Jerusalem

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave AEK Larnaca a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Beitar Jerusalem 16%. AEK Larnaca are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem?

1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.4%).

Will both teams score in AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem?

The probability that both AEK Larnaca and Beitar Jerusalem score is 49%. AEK Larnaca have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Beitar Jerusalem 14%.

How many goals should we expect in AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem?

The model expects 2.80 goals (1.94 for AEK Larnaca, 0.86 for Beitar Jerusalem). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.

When and where is AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem played?

Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: AEK Arena, Larnaca.

What form are AEK Larnaca and Beitar Jerusalem in?

AEK Larnaca: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded). Beitar Jerusalem: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between AEK Larnaca and Beitar Jerusalem?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AEK Larnaca, 0 for Beitar Jerusalem and 1 draw.

What was the AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AEK Larnaca (63%), while victory for Beitar Jerusalem was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.2%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.

How is the AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.94 for AEK Larnaca, 0.86 for Beitar Jerusalem) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained