UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Rīgas FS vs Vestri: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Rīgas FS was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
Match analysis
Rīgas FS vs Vestri was played on Thursday, July 23, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: LNK Sporta Parks, Riga. Before kick-off, our model gave Rīgas FS a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vestri 18%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (10.8%) and 1-1 (10.8%).
Rīgas FS are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 3. Vestri have not won any of their last 2 matches (0 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 0 and conceding 6. On average Rīgas FS score 2.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Vestri score 0.00 and concede 3.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Rīgas FS and Vestri: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Rīgas FS or draw" stands at 82%, "Vestri or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rīgas FS – Vestri. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rīgas FS 1-0 Vestri | 11.8% |
| Rīgas FS 2-0 Vestri | 10.8% |
| Rīgas FS 1-1 Vestri | 10.8% |
| Rīgas FS 2-1 Vestri | 9.8% |
| Rīgas FS 3-0 Vestri | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.74 goals in total (1.83 for Rīgas FS, 0.91 for Vestri): over 2.5 goals has a 52% probability and both teams to score 50%. Rīgas FS keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Vestri in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rīgas FS expected goals | 1.83 |
| Vestri expected goals | 0.91 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Rīgas FS clean sheet | 40% |
| Vestri clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Rīgas FS
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Glentoran · UEFA Conference League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Glentoran · UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Táborsko · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Hvidovre · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Vestri
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Qarabag · UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Qarabag · UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Rīgas FS and Vestri: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Rīgas FS
No absences reported.
Vestri
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Flora Tallinn 1-0 The New SaintsJul 23, 2026
- Dila 0-4 Apollon LimassolJul 23, 2026
- AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar JerusalemJul 23, 2026
- Dunajska Streda 1-0 VeležJul 23, 2026
- Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Valletta FCJul 23, 2026
- Universitatea Cluj 2-2 BrannJul 23, 2026
- ML Vitebsk 3-0 SutjeskaJul 23, 2026
- Zimbru 1-1 FC NoahJul 23, 2026
- Dinamo Tbilisi 3-0 FK Zalgiris VilniusJul 23, 2026
- FC Santa Coloma 1-3 Rapid ViennaJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rīgas FS vs Vestri prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Rīgas FS a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vestri 18%. Rīgas FS are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Rīgas FS vs Vestri?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Rīgas FS vs Vestri?
The probability that both Rīgas FS and Vestri score is 50%. Rīgas FS have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Vestri 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Rīgas FS vs Vestri?
The model expects 2.74 goals (1.83 for Rīgas FS, 0.91 for Vestri). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 52%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Rīgas FS vs Vestri played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: LNK Sporta Parks, Riga.
What form are Rīgas FS and Vestri in?
Rīgas FS: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded). Vestri: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 2 matches (0 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the Rīgas FS vs Vestri result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Rīgas FS was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (52%): correct.
How is the Rīgas FS vs Vestri prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.83 for Rīgas FS, 0.91 for Vestri) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rīgas FS predictions
- All Vestri predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology