UEFA Conference League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Paide vs Zira: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Paide 1-0 Zira. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Paide was the model's favourite outcome (51%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Paide vs Zira was played on Thursday, July 23, 2026 (UEFA Conference League). Venue: Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu. Before kick-off, our model gave Paide a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Zira 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Paide have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Zira have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with Paide. On average Paide score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Zira score 2.40 and concede 1.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Paide and Zira: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Paide or draw" stands at 76%, "Zira or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Paide – Zira. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paide 1-1 Zira | 11.8% |
| Paide 1-0 Zira | 11.4% |
| Paide 2-1 Zira | 9.5% |
| Paide 2-0 Zira | 9.2% |
| Paide 0-1 Zira | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.61 for Paide, 1.04 for Zira): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Paide keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Zira in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Paide expected goals | 1.61 |
| Zira expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Paide clean sheet | 35% |
| Zira clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Paide
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen · UEFA Conference League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Hegelmann Litauen · UEFA Conference League | 1-1 | D |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Super Nova · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Flora Tallinn · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Kalju Nomme · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Zira
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi · UEFA Conference League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi · UEFA Conference League | 3-0 | W |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Bohemians 1905 · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Oleksandria · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Csikszereda · Club Friendlies | 3-3 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Paide and Zira: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Paide
No absences reported.
Zira
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Panevėžys 1-1 FK Tobol KostanayJul 23, 2026
- Flora Tallinn 1-0 The New SaintsJul 23, 2026
- Dila 0-4 Apollon LimassolJul 23, 2026
- HJK Helsinki 5-0 Coleraine FCJul 23, 2026
- Debreceni VSC 1-0 Pyunik YerevanJul 23, 2026
- AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar JerusalemJul 23, 2026
- Rīgas FS 4-1 VestriJul 23, 2026
- Dunajska Streda 1-0 VeležJul 23, 2026
- Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Valletta FCJul 23, 2026
- Universitatea Cluj 2-2 BrannJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Paide vs Zira prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Paide a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Zira 24%. Paide are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Paide vs Zira?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Paide vs Zira?
The probability that both Paide and Zira score is 52%. Paide have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Zira 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Paide vs Zira?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Paide, 1.04 for Zira). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Paide vs Zira played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Conference League. Venue: Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu.
What form are Paide and Zira in?
Paide: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Zira: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 9 conceded).
What was the Paide vs Zira result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Paide 1-0 Zira. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Paide was the model's favourite outcome (51%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Paide vs Zira prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Paide, 1.04 for Zira) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Paide predictions
- All Zira predictions
- UEFA Conference League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology