Eredivisie· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ajax (74%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): missed.
Match analysis
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Eredivisie, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Before kick-off, our model gave Ajax a 74% chance of winning, the draw 15% and NEC Nijmegen 11%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (9.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.0%) and 3-0 (8.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ajax have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 7. NEC Nijmegen have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Ajax therefore arrive in far better shape than NEC Nijmegen. On average Ajax score 3.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; NEC Nijmegen score 0.80 and concede 2.80. In the table, Ajax sit 5th with 14 points from 7 games, NEC Nijmegen 11th with 8 points from 7. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Ajax have averaged 2.06 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.05 for NEC Nijmegen.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ajax, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 3 draws. The most recent ended Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Feb 21, 2026). Ajax out or doubtful: S. Berghuis, D. Blind, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg and A. Gaaei. NEC Nijmegen: D. Fonville, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Geiger (doubtful) and K. Sierhuis (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Ajax or draw" stands at 89%, "NEC Nijmegen or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Ajax are tipped by our AI model in this Ajax v NEC Nijmegen (74%). In the table, Ajax (5th, 14 pts) host NEC Nijmegen (11th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ajax – NEC Nijmegen. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ajax 2-0 NEC Nijmegen | 9.3% |
| Ajax 2-1 NEC Nijmegen | 9.0% |
| Ajax 3-0 NEC Nijmegen | 8.4% |
| Ajax 3-1 NEC Nijmegen | 8.1% |
| Ajax 1-0 NEC Nijmegen | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.71 expected goals for Ajax and 0.97 for NEC Nijmegen, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 71% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Goals look likely in this one. Ajax keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, NEC Nijmegen in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ajax expected goals | 2.71 |
| NEC Nijmegen expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 38% |
| NEC Nijmegen clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ajax
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
NEC Nijmegen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Juventus · UEFA Europa League | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cambuur · Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Feyenoord · Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 5 | 14 | 7 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2025 | Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 1, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Out and doubtful
Ajax
- S. Berghuis (out)
- D. Blind (out)
- Caio Henrique (out)
- K. Dolberg (out)
- A. Gaaei (out)
NEC Nijmegen
- D. Fonville (out)
- E. Mor (out)
- B. Nuytinck (out)
- P. Sandler (out)
- D. Geiger (doubtful)
- K. Sierhuis (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Ajax
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Brandt5/5
- J. Mokio5/5
- A. Gaaei4/5
- Caio Henrique4/5
- D. Klaassen4/5
- M. ter Stegen4/5
- O. Gloukh4/5
- S. Berghuis4/5
- Y. Baas4/5
- T. Arokodare3/5
- T. Kehrer3/5
NEC Nijmegen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- T. Storm5/5
- N. Lebreton4/5
- T. Chery4/5
- A. Thomas3/5
- B. Linssen3/5
- D. Nejasmic3/5
- D. Tadic3/5
- N. Polster3/5
- A. Kabar2/5
- A. Tahaui2/5
- B. Nuytinck2/5
Other matches in this competition
- PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HeerenveenOct 9, 2026
- GO Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta RotterdamOct 10, 2026
- Feyenoord 2-0 AZ AlkmaarOct 10, 2026
- Fortuna Sittard 1-1 TwenteOct 10, 2026
- Utrecht 3-1 Willem IIOct 11, 2026
- Telstar 2-2 ADO Den HaagOct 11, 2026
- PEC Zwolle 0-1 CambuurOct 11, 2026
- Excelsior 1-5 GroningenOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ajax a 74% chance of winning, the draw 15% and NEC Nijmegen 11%. Ajax are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
2-0 (9.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.0%), 3-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.1%) and 1-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
The probability that both Ajax and NEC Nijmegen score is 58%. Ajax have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, NEC Nijmegen 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
The model expects 3.68 goals (2.71 for Ajax, 0.97 for NEC Nijmegen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 71%, over 3.5 goals 50%.
When and where is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Eredivisie, matchday 8. Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
What form are Ajax and NEC Nijmegen in?
Ajax: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 7 conceded). NEC Nijmegen: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ajax, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 3 draws. The most recent ended Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Feb 21, 2026).
What was the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ajax (74%), while a draw was rated at only 15%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.6%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (71%): missed.
How is the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.71 for Ajax, 0.97 for NEC Nijmegen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ajax predictions
- All NEC Nijmegen predictions
- Eredivisie predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology