Eredivisie· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Ajax take on NEC Nijmegen on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a Eredivisie, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Our model makes Ajax clear favourites: a 83% chance of winning, against 11% for the draw and 6% for NEC Nijmegen. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (9.4%), followed by 2-0 (8.7%) and 3-1 (8.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ajax have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 17 and conceding 7. NEC Nijmegen have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 14. Ajax therefore arrive in far better shape than NEC Nijmegen. On average Ajax score 3.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; NEC Nijmegen score 1.20 and concede 2.80. In the table, Ajax sit 5th with 14 points from 7 games, NEC Nijmegen 11th with 8 points from 7. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Ajax have averaged 2.06 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.35 for NEC Nijmegen.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ajax, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 2 draws. The most recent ended Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Feb 21, 2026). Ajax out or doubtful: S. Adingra, D. Blind and A. Bouwman. NEC Nijmegen: C. Bischoff, G. Crettaz, D. Fonville, A. Kaplan and E. Mor. In double chance terms, "Ajax or draw" stands at 94%, "NEC Nijmegen or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 89%.
In short : Ajax are tipped by our AI model in this Ajax v NEC Nijmegen (83%). In the table, Ajax (5th, 14 pts) host NEC Nijmegen (11th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ajax – NEC Nijmegen. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (9.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ajax 3-0 NEC Nijmegen | 9.4% |
| Ajax 2-0 NEC Nijmegen | 8.7% |
| Ajax 3-1 NEC Nijmegen | 8.1% |
| Ajax 4-0 NEC Nijmegen | 7.6% |
| Ajax 2-1 NEC Nijmegen | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.24 expected goals for Ajax and 0.86 for NEC Nijmegen, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 78% and "both teams to score" at 55%. Goals look likely in this one. Ajax keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, NEC Nijmegen in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ajax expected goals | 3.24 |
| NEC Nijmegen expected goals | 0.86 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 42% |
| NEC Nijmegen clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ajax
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie | 5-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
NEC Nijmegen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | Juventus · UEFA Europa League | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cambuur · Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Feyenoord · Eredivisie | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 5 | 14 | 7 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
Out and doubtful
Ajax
- S. Adingra (out)
- D. Blind (out)
- A. Bouwman (out)
NEC Nijmegen
- C. Bischoff (out)
- G. Crettaz (out)
- D. Fonville (out)
- A. Kaplan (out)
- E. Mor (out)
Most regular starters
Ajax
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Brandt5/5
- J. Mokio5/5
- A. Gaaei4/5
- Caio Henrique4/5
- D. Klaassen4/5
- M. ter Stegen4/5
- O. Gloukh4/5
- S. Berghuis4/5
- Y. Baas4/5
- T. Arokodare3/5
- T. Kehrer3/5
NEC Nijmegen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- T. Storm5/5
- N. Lebreton4/5
- T. Chery4/5
- A. Tahaui3/5
- B. Linssen3/5
- B. Nuytinck3/5
- C. Bischoff3/5
- D. Tadic3/5
- G. Crettaz3/5
- A. Kabar2/5
- A. Thomas2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- GO Ahead Eagles – Sparta RotterdamOct 10, 2026
- Feyenoord – AZ AlkmaarOct 10, 2026
- Fortuna Sittard – TwenteOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction?
Our AI gives Ajax a 83% chance of winning, the draw 11% and NEC Nijmegen 6%. Ajax are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
3-0 (9.4%), followed by 2-0 (8.7%), 3-1 (8.1%), 4-0 (7.6%) and 2-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
The probability that both Ajax and NEC Nijmegen score is 55%. Ajax have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, NEC Nijmegen 4%.
How many goals should we expect in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
The model expects 4.10 goals (3.24 for Ajax, 0.86 for NEC Nijmegen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 92%, over 2.5 goals 78%, over 3.5 goals 59%.
When and where is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Eredivisie, matchday 8. Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
What form are Ajax and NEC Nijmegen in?
Ajax: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 7 conceded). NEC Nijmegen: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 14 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Ajax, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 2 draws. The most recent ended Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Feb 21, 2026).
How is the Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.24 for Ajax, 0.86 for NEC Nijmegen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ajax predictions
- All NEC Nijmegen predictions
- Eredivisie predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology