Eredivisie· Kick-off : Friday, October 9, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
PSV Eindhoven take on Heerenveen on Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), a Eredivisie, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven. With a 90% win probability, PSV Eindhoven go in as strong favourites against Heerenveen (3%), with the draw rated at 7%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (8.5%), ahead of 4-0 (8.5%) and 3-1 (7.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, PSV Eindhoven have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Heerenveen have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with PSV Eindhoven. On average PSV Eindhoven score 3.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Heerenveen score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, PSV Eindhoven sit 3rd with 16 points from 7 games, Heerenveen 10th with 9 points from 7. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, PSV Eindhoven have averaged 2.59 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.31 for Heerenveen.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Heerenveen and 0 draws. The most recent ended PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen (Feb 21, 2026). PSV Eindhoven out or doubtful: S. Lammers, A. Nagalo, S. Ouaissa, A. Plea, J. Schouten and K. Sildillia. Heerenveen: M. Egbring, M. Hilgers and D. Proper. In double chance terms, "PSV Eindhoven or draw" stands at 97%, "Heerenveen or draw" at 10% and "no draw" at 93%.
In short : PSV Eindhoven are tipped by our AI model in this PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen (90%). In the table, PSV Eindhoven (3rd, 16 pts) host Heerenveen (10th, 9 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Heerenveen | 8.5% |
| PSV Eindhoven 4-0 Heerenveen | 8.5% |
| PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen | 7.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Heerenveen | 7.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven 5-0 Heerenveen | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.83 goals in total (4.00 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.83 for Heerenveen): over 2.5 goals has a 86% probability and both teams to score 55%. Everything points to an open game. PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Heerenveen in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven expected goals | 4.00 |
| Heerenveen expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 44% |
| Heerenveen clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
PSV Eindhoven
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Utrecht · Eredivisie | 6-1 | W |
Heerenveen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 16 | 7 |
| Heerenveen | 10 | 9 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Feb 4, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Heerenveen | KNVB Beker |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Heerenveen 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Heerenveen 1-0 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
Out and doubtful
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Lammers (out)
- A. Nagalo (out)
- S. Ouaissa (out)
- A. Plea (out)
- J. Schouten (out)
- K. Sildillia (out)
Heerenveen
- M. Egbring (out)
- M. Hilgers (out)
- D. Proper (out)
Most regular starters
PSV Eindhoven
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obispo5/5
- G. Til5/5
- K. Sano5/5
- S. Dest5/5
- L. Geertruida4/5
- R. Pepi4/5
- R. van Bommel4/5
- M. Kovar3/5
- Mauro Junior3/5
- P. Wanner3/5
- I. Perisic2/5
Heerenveen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Klaverboer5/5
- D. Vente5/5
- J. Trenskow5/5
- M. Rivera5/5
- M. Willemsen5/5
- O. Braude5/5
- S. Kersten5/5
- V. Zagaritis5/5
- N. Courtens4/5
- R. Meerveld4/5
- D. Proper3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- GO Ahead Eagles – Sparta RotterdamOct 10, 2026
- Feyenoord – AZ AlkmaarOct 10, 2026
- Fortuna Sittard – TwenteOct 10, 2026
- Ajax – NEC NijmegenOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen prediction?
Our AI gives PSV Eindhoven a 90% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Heerenveen 3%. PSV Eindhoven are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
3-0 (8.5%), followed by 4-0 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.1%), 4-1 (7.1%) and 5-0 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
The probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen score is 55%. PSV Eindhoven have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Heerenveen 2%.
How many goals should we expect in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
The model expects 4.83 goals (4.00 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.83 for Heerenveen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen played?
Friday, October 9, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Eredivisie, matchday 8. Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen in?
PSV Eindhoven: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 7 conceded). Heerenveen: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Heerenveen and 0 draws. The most recent ended PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen (Feb 21, 2026).
How is the PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.83 for Heerenveen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All PSV Eindhoven predictions
- All Heerenveen predictions
- Eredivisie predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology