Eredivisie· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Eredivisie, matchday 8: the Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar match is scheduled on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: De Kuip, Rotterdam. Our model makes Feyenoord clear favourites: a 64% chance of winning, against 17% for the draw and 19% for AZ Alkmaar. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (7.4%), followed by 3-1 (7.2%) and 2-2 (6.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Feyenoord have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Feyenoord score 3.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; AZ Alkmaar score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Feyenoord sit 2nd with 17 points from 7 games, AZ Alkmaar 1st with 19 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Feyenoord have averaged 2.60 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.81 for AZ Alkmaar.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Feyenoord, 0 for AZ Alkmaar and 2 draws. The most recent ended Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (May 10, 2026). Feyenoord out or doubtful: T. Beelen, G. Borges, J. Bos, J. Moder, B. Nieuwkoop and G. Smal. AZ Alkmaar: D. Kasius and S. Resink. In double chance terms, "Feyenoord or draw" stands at 81%, "AZ Alkmaar or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Our model backs Feyenoord to edge AZ Alkmaar (64% probability). In the table, Feyenoord (2nd, 17 pts) host AZ Alkmaar (1st, 19 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 83%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Feyenoord 2-1 AZ Alkmaar | 7.4% |
| Feyenoord 3-1 AZ Alkmaar | 7.2% |
| Feyenoord 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | 6.0% |
| Feyenoord 3-2 AZ Alkmaar | 5.8% |
| Feyenoord 4-1 AZ Alkmaar | 5.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.91 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.62 for AZ Alkmaar, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 76%. Goals look likely in this one. Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, AZ Alkmaar in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Feyenoord expected goals | 2.91 |
| AZ Alkmaar expected goals | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% |
| Feyenoord clean sheet | 20% |
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Feyenoord
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Utrecht · Eredivisie | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Barcelona · UEFA Champions League | 1-5 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
AZ Alkmaar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar · Eredivisie | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland · UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Heerenveen · Eredivisie | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie | 5-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 2 | 17 | 7 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 19 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Sep 21, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 3-3 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| Apr 5, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Feyenoord 3-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar | KNVB Beker |
Out and doubtful
Feyenoord
- T. Beelen (out)
- G. Borges (out)
- J. Bos (out)
- J. Moder (out)
- B. Nieuwkoop (out)
- G. Smal (out)
AZ Alkmaar
- D. Kasius (out)
- S. Resink (out)
Most regular starters
Feyenoord
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Read5/5
- L. Valente5/5
- T. Ernst5/5
- T. Watanabe5/5
- C. Vanhoutte4/5
- G. Zechiel4/5
- J. St. Juste4/5
- M. Marmol4/5
- O. Targhalline4/5
- A. Hadj Moussa3/5
- Nacho3/5
AZ Alkmaar
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Dijkstra5/5
- J. De Busser5/5
- L. Schouten5/5
- M. Meerdink5/5
- P. Koopmeiners5/5
- R. Daal5/5
- W. Goes5/5
- D. Kwakman4/5
- M. Chavez Garcia4/5
- J. Clasie3/5
- C. Stengs2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- PSV Eindhoven – HeerenveenOct 9, 2026
- GO Ahead Eagles – Sparta RotterdamOct 10, 2026
- Fortuna Sittard – TwenteOct 10, 2026
- Ajax – NEC NijmegenOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar prediction?
Our AI gives Feyenoord a 64% chance of winning, the draw 17% and AZ Alkmaar 19%. Feyenoord are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
2-1 (7.4%), followed by 3-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (6.0%), 3-2 (5.8%) and 4-1 (5.2%).
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The probability that both Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar score is 76%. Feyenoord have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AZ Alkmaar 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model expects 4.53 goals (2.91 for Feyenoord, 1.62 for AZ Alkmaar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.
When and where is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), Eredivisie, matchday 8. Venue: De Kuip, Rotterdam.
What form are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar in?
Feyenoord: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 8 conceded). AZ Alkmaar: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Feyenoord, 0 for AZ Alkmaar and 2 draws. The most recent ended Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (May 10, 2026).
How is the Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.91 for Feyenoord, 1.62 for AZ Alkmaar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Feyenoord predictions
- All AZ Alkmaar predictions
- Eredivisie predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology