Eredivisie· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 15:45 (UK time)
Excelsior vs Groningen: 1-5 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Excelsior 1-5 Groningen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Excelsior (37%), while victory for Groningen was rated at only 37%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Excelsior and Groningen met on Sunday, October 11, 2026, a Eredivisie, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam. Before kick-off, our model gave Excelsior a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Groningen 37%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (9.3%) and 0-1 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Excelsior have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Groningen have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 11. Excelsior therefore arrive in far better shape than Groningen. On average Excelsior score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Groningen score 1.80 and concede 2.20. In the table, Excelsior sit 7th with 11 points from 7 games, Groningen 8th with 11 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Excelsior have averaged 1.33 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.35 for Groningen.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Excelsior, 3 for Groningen and 0 draws. The most recent ended Groningen 2-3 Excelsior (May 2, 2026). Excelsior out or doubtful: N. Naujoks (doubtful). Groningen: T. Hernes, M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan and R. Metu (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Excelsior or draw" stands at 63%, "Groningen or draw" at 63% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Excelsior and Groningen meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 26%). On recent form, Excelsior have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Groningen have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Groningen will be without T. Hernes and M. Jeng.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Excelsior – Groningen. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Excelsior 1-1 Groningen | 12.4% |
| Excelsior 1-0 Groningen | 9.3% |
| Excelsior 0-1 Groningen | 9.3% |
| Excelsior 2-1 Groningen | 8.2% |
| Excelsior 1-2 Groningen | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.33 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.33 for Groningen, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Groningen in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Excelsior expected goals | 1.33 |
| Groningen expected goals | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 26% |
| Groningen clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Excelsior
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht · Eredivisie | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II · Eredivisie | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 2-1 | W |
Groningen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Twente · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie | 1-5 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| Groningen | 8 | 11 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Groningen 2-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Groningen 3-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Excelsior 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Out and doubtful
Excelsior
- N. Naujoks (doubtful)
Groningen
- T. Hernes (out)
- M. Jeng (out)
- T. Mercera (out)
- E. van der Laan (out)
- R. Metu (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Excelsior
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Thorsteinsson5/5
- C. Widell5/5
- D. Garden5/5
- I. Yegoian5/5
- J. Plug5/5
- L. Hartjes5/5
- R. Meissen5/5
- S. van Gassel5/5
- A. Sliti4/5
- E. da Silva Moreira4/5
- S. Janssen4/5
Groningen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Willumsson5/5
- D. van der Werff5/5
- E. Vaessen5/5
- J. Schreuders5/5
- M. Csinger5/5
- P. Clement5/5
- T. Blokzijl5/5
- T. de Jonge5/5
- T. van Bergen5/5
- T. Land4/5
- W. Prins4/5
Other matches in this competition
- PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HeerenveenOct 9, 2026
- GO Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta RotterdamOct 10, 2026
- Feyenoord 2-0 AZ AlkmaarOct 10, 2026
- Fortuna Sittard 1-1 TwenteOct 10, 2026
- Ajax 1-1 NEC NijmegenOct 10, 2026
- Utrecht 3-1 Willem IIOct 11, 2026
- Telstar 2-2 ADO Den HaagOct 11, 2026
- PEC Zwolle 0-1 CambuurOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Excelsior vs Groningen prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Excelsior a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Groningen 37%. Excelsior are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-5.
What is the most likely correct score for Excelsior vs Groningen?
1-1 (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%), 2-1 (8.2%) and 1-2 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Groningen?
The probability that both Excelsior and Groningen score is 54%. Excelsior have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Groningen 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Excelsior vs Groningen?
The model expects 2.66 goals (1.33 for Excelsior, 1.33 for Groningen). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Excelsior vs Groningen played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 15:45 (UK time), Eredivisie, matchday 8. Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam.
What form are Excelsior and Groningen in?
Excelsior: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Groningen: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Groningen?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Excelsior, 3 for Groningen and 0 draws. The most recent ended Groningen 2-3 Excelsior (May 2, 2026).
What was the Excelsior vs Groningen result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Excelsior 1-5 Groningen. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Excelsior (37%), while victory for Groningen was rated at only 37%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Excelsior vs Groningen prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.33 for Excelsior, 1.33 for Groningen) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Excelsior predictions
- All Groningen predictions
- Eredivisie predictions
- Groningen cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology