Eredivisie· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 11:15 (UK time)
Utrecht vs Willem II: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Utrecht 3-1 Willem II. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Utrecht was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
Match analysis
Utrecht vs Willem II was played on Sunday, October 11, 2026 (Eredivisie, matchday 8). Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht. Before kick-off, our model gave Utrecht a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Willem II 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.3%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.0%).
Utrecht have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 18. Willem II have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Utrecht score 1.80 and concede 3.60 goals per game; Willem II score 0.80 and concede 2.40. In the table, Utrecht sit 15th with 5 points from 7 games, Willem II 18th with 2 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Utrecht have averaged 1.05 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.28 for Willem II.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Utrecht and Willem II: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Utrecht out or doubtful: A. Engwanda, V. Jensen, M. Jonathans, N. Ohio, A. Stepanov and K. Paredes (doubtful). Willem II: A. Culum, T. Didillon Hodl, J. Hoogma, A. Lachkar and K. Boogaard (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Utrecht or draw" stands at 84%, "Willem II or draw" at 37% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Utrecht are tipped by our AI model in this Utrecht v Willem II (63%). In the table, Utrecht (15th, 5 pts) host Willem II (18th, 2 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Utrecht – Willem II. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Utrecht 1-0 Willem II | 11.3% |
| Utrecht 2-0 Willem II | 11.2% |
| Utrecht 1-1 Willem II | 10.0% |
| Utrecht 2-1 Willem II | 9.9% |
| Utrecht 3-0 Willem II | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.86 goals in total (1.98 for Utrecht, 0.88 for Willem II): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 50%. Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Willem II in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Utrecht expected goals | 1.98 |
| Willem II expected goals | 0.88 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Utrecht clean sheet | 42% |
| Willem II clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Utrecht
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Feyenoord · Eredivisie | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie | 1-6 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 3-3 | D |
Willem II
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ajax · Eredivisie | 1-5 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Excelsior · Eredivisie | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Heerenveen · Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 15 | 5 | 7 |
| Willem II | 18 | 2 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Utrecht and Willem II: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Utrecht
- A. Engwanda (out)
- V. Jensen (out)
- M. Jonathans (out)
- N. Ohio (out)
- A. Stepanov (out)
- K. Paredes (doubtful)
Willem II
- A. Culum (out)
- T. Didillon Hodl (out)
- J. Hoogma (out)
- A. Lachkar (out)
- K. Boogaard (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Utrecht
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Alarcon4/5
- A. Stepanov4/5
- A. Zagre4/5
- D. de Wit4/5
- D. van den Berg4/5
- S. Horemans4/5
- V. Barkas4/5
- M. Didden3/5
- N. Panagiotou3/5
- N. Vesterlund3/5
- A. Blake2/5
Willem II
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Twigt5/5
- D. Haen5/5
- F. Stam5/5
- H. ter Avest5/5
- J. Slory5/5
- N. Tjoe a On5/5
- U. van Aalst5/5
- M. Delanghe4/5
- E. Gurbuz3/5
- M. Dekker3/5
- T. Vilhena3/5
Other matches in this competition
- PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HeerenveenOct 9, 2026
- GO Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta RotterdamOct 10, 2026
- Feyenoord 2-0 AZ AlkmaarOct 10, 2026
- Fortuna Sittard 1-1 TwenteOct 10, 2026
- Ajax 1-1 NEC NijmegenOct 10, 2026
- Telstar 2-2 ADO Den HaagOct 11, 2026
- PEC Zwolle 0-1 CambuurOct 11, 2026
- Excelsior 1-5 GroningenOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Utrecht vs Willem II prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Utrecht a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Willem II 16%. Utrecht are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Utrecht vs Willem II?
1-0 (11.3%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
The probability that both Utrecht and Willem II score is 50%. Utrecht have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Willem II 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Utrecht vs Willem II?
The model expects 2.86 goals (1.98 for Utrecht, 0.88 for Willem II). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Utrecht vs Willem II played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 11:15 (UK time), Eredivisie, matchday 8. Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht.
What form are Utrecht and Willem II in?
Utrecht: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 18 conceded). Willem II: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded).
What was the Utrecht vs Willem II result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Utrecht 3-1 Willem II. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Utrecht was the model's favourite outcome (63%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
How is the Utrecht vs Willem II prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.98 for Utrecht, 0.88 for Willem II) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Utrecht predictions
- All Willem II predictions
- Eredivisie predictions
- Utrecht cards
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology