UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for HNK Hajduk Split was the model's favourite outcome (54%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos was played on Thursday, July 23, 2026 (UEFA Europa League). Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split. Before kick-off, our model gave HNK Hajduk Split a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pafos 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, HNK Hajduk Split have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Pafos have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with HNK Hajduk Split. On average HNK Hajduk Split score 1.80 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Pafos score 1.20 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "HNK Hajduk Split or draw" stands at 78%, "Pafos or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as HNK Hajduk Split – Pafos. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 Pafos | 11.7% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 1-1 Pafos | 11.4% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos | 9.9% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 Pafos | 9.7% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 0-0 Pafos | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.70 for HNK Hajduk Split, 0.98 for Pafos): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. HNK Hajduk Split keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Pafos in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split expected goals | 1.70 |
| Pafos expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet | 38% |
| Pafos clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
HNK Hajduk Split
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Žilina · UEFA Europa League | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Žilina · UEFA Europa League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Celje · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 27, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Shkendija · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Pafos
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | FK Jablonec · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Slavia Praha · UEFA Champions League | 4-1 | W |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Chelsea · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Juventus · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
HNK Hajduk Split
No absences reported.
Pafos
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Qarabag 0-0 CSKA SofiaJul 23, 2026
- Dynamo Kyiv 2-3 PAOKJul 23, 2026
- Hammarby FF 1-1 AnderlechtJul 23, 2026
- Tromso 0-1 Hradec KrálovéJul 23, 2026
- Sheriff Tiraspol 0-5 Maccabi Tel AvivJul 23, 2026
- FC ST. Gallen 2-1 BenficaJul 23, 2026
- Beşiktaş 1-0 FC MidtjyllandJul 23, 2026
- Twente 1-2 Ferencvarosi TCJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave HNK Hajduk Split a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pafos 22%. HNK Hajduk Split are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos?
The probability that both HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos score is 51%. HNK Hajduk Split have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Pafos 18%.
How many goals should we expect in HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.70 for HNK Hajduk Split, 0.98 for Pafos). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split.
What form are HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos in?
HNK Hajduk Split: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 2 conceded). Pafos: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 Pafos. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for HNK Hajduk Split was the model's favourite outcome (54%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.70 for HNK Hajduk Split, 0.98 for Pafos) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All HNK Hajduk Split predictions
- All Pafos predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology