UEFA Europa League· Kick-off : Thursday, July 23, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Qarabag (64%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
Match analysis
Qarabag and CSKA Sofia met on Thursday, July 23, 2026, a UEFA Europa League fixture. Venue: Azərsun Arena, Baku. Before kick-off, our model gave Qarabag a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CSKA Sofia 14%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Qarabag have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, CSKA Sofia have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Qarabag score 2.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; CSKA Sofia score 2.20 and concede 1.80.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Qarabag, 0 for CSKA Sofia and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "Qarabag or draw" stands at 86%, "CSKA Sofia or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 78%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Qarabag – CSKA Sofia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Qarabag 1-1 CSKA Sofia | 12.0% |
| Qarabag 1-0 CSKA Sofia | 11.2% |
| Qarabag 2-1 CSKA Sofia | 9.4% |
| Qarabag 2-0 CSKA Sofia | 8.8% |
| Qarabag 0-1 CSKA Sofia | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.56 expected goals for Qarabag and 1.07 for CSKA Sofia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Qarabag keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, CSKA Sofia in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Qarabag expected goals | 1.56 |
| CSKA Sofia expected goals | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Qarabag clean sheet | 34% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Qarabag
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vestri · UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Vestri · UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv · Club Friendlies | 2-6 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | WSG Wattens · Club Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
CSKA Sofia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Derry City · UEFA Europa League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Derry City · UEFA Europa League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Marek · Club Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Odra Opole · Club Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Polessya · Club Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Head-to-head
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Qarabag, 0 for CSKA Sofia and 0 draws.
Out and doubtful
Qarabag
No absences reported.
CSKA Sofia
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Dynamo Kyiv 2-3 PAOKJul 23, 2026
- Hammarby FF 1-1 AnderlechtJul 23, 2026
- Tromso 0-1 Hradec KrálovéJul 23, 2026
- Sheriff Tiraspol 0-5 Maccabi Tel AvivJul 23, 2026
- FC ST. Gallen 2-1 BenficaJul 23, 2026
- Beşiktaş 1-0 FC MidtjyllandJul 23, 2026
- Twente 1-2 Ferencvarosi TCJul 23, 2026
- HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 PafosJul 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Qarabag a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CSKA Sofia 14%. Qarabag are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
The probability that both Qarabag and CSKA Sofia score is 52%. Qarabag have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, CSKA Sofia 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.56 for Qarabag, 1.07 for CSKA Sofia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia played?
Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Europa League. Venue: Azərsun Arena, Baku.
What form are Qarabag and CSKA Sofia in?
Qarabag: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 7 conceded). CSKA Sofia: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Qarabag and CSKA Sofia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Qarabag, 0 for CSKA Sofia and 0 draws.
What was the Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Qarabag (64%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.2%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.
How is the Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.56 for Qarabag, 1.07 for CSKA Sofia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Qarabag predictions
- All CSKA Sofia predictions
- UEFA Europa League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology