FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, June 21, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Ecuador vs Curaçao: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ecuador (68%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (21.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (20%): correct.
Match analysis
Ecuador and Curaçao met on Sunday, June 21, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. Before kick-off, our model gave Ecuador a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Curaçao 14%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (25.5%), followed by 0-0 (21.4%) and 2-0 (15.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ecuador have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Curaçao have won just one of their last 3 matches (0 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Ecuador therefore arrive in far better shape than Curaçao. On average Ecuador score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Curaçao score 2.00 and concede 3.67. In the table, Ecuador sit 9th with 0 points from 1 games, Curaçao 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Ecuador have averaged 1.01 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.41 for Curaçao.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ecuador and Curaçao: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ecuador or draw" stands at 86%, "Curaçao or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Ecuador enters this World Cup clash with superior recent form and a significantly higher expected goals average of 1.01 compared to Curaçao's 0.41, despite both teams suffering opening-match defeats. Curaçao's concerning goal differential of -6 and four losses in their last five matches suggest Ecuador are clear favorites to bounce back.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ecuador – Curaçao. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (25.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 78% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ecuador 1-0 Curaçao | 25.5% |
| Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao | 21.4% |
| Ecuador 2-0 Curaçao | 15.2% |
| Ecuador 1-1 Curaçao | 8.9% |
| Ecuador 0-1 Curaçao | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.19 expected goals for Ecuador and 0.35 for Curaçao, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 20% and "both teams to score" at 21%. Few goals are expected here. Ecuador keep a clean sheet in 71% of scenarios, Curaçao in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ecuador expected goals | 1.19 |
| Curaçao expected goals | 0.35 |
| Both teams to score | 21% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7% |
| Ecuador clean sheet | 71% |
| Curaçao clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Ecuador
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2026 | Ivory Coast · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Guatemala · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| May 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Netherlands · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Curaçao
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Germany · FIFA World Cup | 1-7 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Aruba · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| May 30, 2026 | Scotland · International Friendlies | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| Curaçao | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ecuador and Curaçao: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Ecuador
No absences reported.
Curaçao
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Mexico 1-0 South KoreaJun 19, 2026
- Netherlands 5-1 SwedenJun 20, 2026
- Germany 2-1 Ivory CoastJun 20, 2026
- Tunisia 0-4 JapanJun 21, 2026
- Spain 4-0 Saudi ArabiaJun 21, 2026
- Belgium 0-0 IranJun 21, 2026
- Uruguay 2-2 Cape VerdeJun 21, 2026
- New Zealand 1-3 EgyptJun 22, 2026
- Argentina 2-0 AustriaJun 22, 2026
- France 3-0 IraqJun 22, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ecuador vs Curaçao prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ecuador a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Curaçao 14%. Ecuador are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Ecuador vs Curaçao?
1-0 (25.5%), followed by 0-0 (21.4%), 2-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Ecuador vs Curaçao?
The probability that both Ecuador and Curaçao score is 21%. Ecuador have a 71% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Curaçao 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Ecuador vs Curaçao?
The model expects 1.54 goals (1.19 for Ecuador, 0.35 for Curaçao). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 46%, over 2.5 goals 20%, over 3.5 goals 7%.
When and where is Ecuador vs Curaçao played?
Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.
What form are Ecuador and Curaçao in?
Ecuador: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Curaçao: 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded).
What was the Ecuador vs Curaçao result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ecuador (68%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (21.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (20%): correct.
How is the Ecuador vs Curaçao prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.19 for Ecuador, 0.35 for Curaçao) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ecuador predictions
- All Curaçao predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology