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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Monday, June 22, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)

New Zealand vs Egypt: 1-3 result and AI prediction review

New ZealandNew Zealand1 – 3EgyptEgypt

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: New Zealand 1-3 Egypt. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for New Zealand (38%), while victory for Egypt was rated at only 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.

Match analysis

New Zealand vs Egypt was played on Monday, June 22, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: BC Place, Vancouver. Before kick-off, our model gave New Zealand a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Egypt 34%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.7%), ahead of 1-1 (12.3%) and 2-0 (10.2%).

New Zealand have not won any of their last 3 matches (1 draw, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Egypt have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Egypt. On average New Zealand score 0.67 and concede 2.33 goals per game; Egypt score 1.40 and concede 0.60. In the table, New Zealand sit 1st with 1 points from 1 games, Egypt 4th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, New Zealand have averaged 1.24 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.08 for Egypt.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for New Zealand, 1 for Egypt and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "New Zealand or draw" stands at 66%, "Egypt or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : New Zealand enters with superior recent form and a higher xG average of 1.24 compared to Egypt's 1.08, though both teams drew their opening World Cup matches. Egypt holds a historical edge with one previous victory in head-to-head encounters, adding intrigue to this group-stage clash.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
New Zealand (Win)
28%
Draw
34%
Egypt (Win)

Double chance

66%
New Zealand or draw
62%
Egypt or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as New Zealand – Egypt. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
New Zealand 1-0 Egypt13.7%
New Zealand 1-1 Egypt12.3%
New Zealand 2-0 Egypt10.2%
New Zealand 0-0 Egypt9.2%
New Zealand 2-1 Egypt9.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.39 goals in total (1.49 for New Zealand, 0.90 for Egypt): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 46%. New Zealand keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Egypt in 23%.

Probability
New Zealand expected goals1.49
Egypt expected goals0.90
Both teams to score46%
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
New Zealand clean sheet41%
Egypt clean sheet23%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

New Zealand

DateOpponentScore
Jun 16, 2026Iran · FIFA World Cup2-2D
Jun 6, 2026England · International Friendlies0-1L
Jun 3, 2026Haiti · International Friendlies0-4L

Egypt

DateOpponentScore
Jun 15, 2026Belgium · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 6, 2026Brazil · International Friendlies1-2L
May 28, 2026Russia · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 31, 2026Spain · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 27, 2026Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies4-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
New Zealand111
Egypt411

Head-to-head

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for New Zealand, 1 for Egypt and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

New Zealand

No absences reported.

Egypt

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the New Zealand vs Egypt prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave New Zealand a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Egypt 34%. New Zealand are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-3.

What is the most likely correct score for New Zealand vs Egypt?

1-0 (13.7%), followed by 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (9.2%).

Will both teams score in New Zealand vs Egypt?

The probability that both New Zealand and Egypt score is 46%. New Zealand have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Egypt 23%.

How many goals should we expect in New Zealand vs Egypt?

The model expects 2.39 goals (1.49 for New Zealand, 0.90 for Egypt). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.

When and where is New Zealand vs Egypt played?

Monday, June 22, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: BC Place, Vancouver.

What form are New Zealand and Egypt in?

New Zealand: 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 3 matches (2 scored, 7 conceded). Egypt: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between New Zealand and Egypt?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for New Zealand, 1 for Egypt and 0 draws.

What was the New Zealand vs Egypt result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: New Zealand 1-3 Egypt. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for New Zealand (38%), while victory for Egypt was rated at only 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.

How is the New Zealand vs Egypt prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.49 for New Zealand, 0.90 for Egypt) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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