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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, June 21, 2026, 05:00 (UK time)

Tunisia vs Japan: 0-4 result and AI prediction review

TunisiaTunisia0 – 4JapanJapan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Tunisia 0-4 Japan. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Japan at 48%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

Match analysis

Tunisia and Japan met on Sunday, June 21, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. Before kick-off, our model gave Tunisia a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Japan 48%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-1 (9.2%).

Tunisia have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 11. Japan are unbeaten in their last 4 matches (3 wins, 1 draw), scoring 5 and conceding 2. Japan therefore arrive in far better shape than Tunisia. On average Tunisia score 0.40 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Japan score 1.25 and concede 0.50. In the table, Tunisia sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Japan 2nd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Tunisia have averaged 0.28 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.59 for Japan.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tunisia, 1 for Japan and 0 draws. In double chance terms, "Tunisia or draw" stands at 52%, "Japan or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Japan arrives with superior recent form (4 wins in last 5 matches) and higher expected goals (0.59 vs 0.28), while Tunisia enters winless in their opening World Cup match with a -4 goal differential. The visitors' momentum and attacking efficiency suggest a significant advantage despite the evenly split head-to-head record.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Tunisia (Win)
24%
Draw
48%
Japan (Win)

Double chance

52%
Tunisia or draw
72%
Japan or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Tunisia – Japan. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Tunisia 1-1 Japan11.3%
Tunisia 1-2 Japan9.5%
Tunisia 0-1 Japan9.2%
Tunisia 0-2 Japan7.7%
Tunisia 2-1 Japan6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.23 expected goals for Tunisia and 1.68 for Japan, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Tunisia keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Japan in 29%.

Probability
Tunisia expected goals1.23
Japan expected goals1.68
Both teams to score58%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Tunisia clean sheet19%
Japan clean sheet29%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Tunisia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 15, 2026Sweden · FIFA World Cup1-5L
Jun 6, 2026Belgium · International Friendlies0-5L
Jun 1, 2026Austria · International Friendlies0-1L
Apr 1, 2026Canada · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 29, 2026Haiti · International Friendlies1-0W

Japan

DateOpponentScore
Jun 14, 2026Netherlands · FIFA World Cup2-2D
May 31, 2026Iceland · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 31, 2026England · International Friendlies1-0W
Mar 28, 2026Scotland · International Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Tunisia401
Japan211

Head-to-head

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tunisia, 1 for Japan and 0 draws.

Out and doubtful

Tunisia

No absences reported.

Japan

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Tunisia vs Japan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Tunisia a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Japan 48%. Japan are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Tunisia vs Japan?

1-1 (11.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.7%) and 2-1 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Japan?

The probability that both Tunisia and Japan score is 58%. Tunisia have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Japan 29%.

How many goals should we expect in Tunisia vs Japan?

The model expects 2.91 goals (1.23 for Tunisia, 1.68 for Japan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 33%.

When and where is Tunisia vs Japan played?

Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 05:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey.

What form are Tunisia and Japan in?

Tunisia: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 11 conceded). Japan: 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 4 matches (5 scored, 2 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Tunisia and Japan?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tunisia, 1 for Japan and 0 draws.

What was the Tunisia vs Japan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Tunisia 0-4 Japan. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Japan at 48%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.

How is the Tunisia vs Japan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.23 for Tunisia, 1.68 for Japan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained