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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Saturday, June 20, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Netherlands vs Sweden: 5-1 result and AI prediction review

NetherlandsNetherlands5 – 1SwedenSweden

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Netherlands 5-1 Sweden. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Netherlands at 38%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.

Match analysis

Netherlands and Sweden met on Saturday, June 20, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston. Before kick-off, our model gave Netherlands a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sweden 34%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 0-1 (10.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Netherlands have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Sweden have won just one of their last 3 matches (1 draw, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Netherlands score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sweden score 2.67 and concede 2.00. In the table, Netherlands sit 3rd with 1 points from 1 games, Sweden 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Netherlands have averaged 0.78 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.33 for Sweden.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Sweden and 1 draw. In double chance terms, "Netherlands or draw" stands at 66%, "Sweden or draw" at 62% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Sweden arrives with superior form, ranking first in the group with a 4-goal differential after one match, while Netherlands sit third with just a draw. Sweden's recent record shows three wins in their last five matches and a higher expected goals average of 1.33 compared to Netherlands' 0.78, though the Dutch have a historical edge in head-to-head encounters.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

38%
Netherlands (Win)
28%
Draw
34%
Sweden (Win)

Double chance

66%
Netherlands or draw
62%
Sweden or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Netherlands – Sweden. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Netherlands 1-1 Sweden13.2%
Netherlands 1-0 Sweden11.7%
Netherlands 0-1 Sweden10.9%
Netherlands 0-0 Sweden9.6%
Netherlands 2-1 Sweden8.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.21 expected goals for Netherlands and 1.13 for Sweden, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 48%. Few goals are expected here. Netherlands keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Sweden in 30%.

Probability
Netherlands expected goals1.21
Sweden expected goals1.13
Both teams to score48%
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Netherlands clean sheet32%
Sweden clean sheet30%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Netherlands

DateOpponentScore
Jun 14, 2026Japan · FIFA World Cup2-2D
Jun 8, 2026Uzbekistan · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 3, 2026Algeria · International Friendlies0-1L
Mar 31, 2026Ecuador · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 27, 2026Norway · International Friendlies2-1W

Sweden

DateOpponentScore
Jun 15, 2026Tunisia · FIFA World Cup5-1W
Jun 4, 2026Greece · International Friendlies2-2D
Jun 1, 2026Norway · International Friendlies1-3L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Netherlands311
Sweden131

Head-to-head

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Sweden and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

Netherlands

No absences reported.

Sweden

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Netherlands vs Sweden prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Netherlands a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sweden 34%. Netherlands are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 5-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Netherlands vs Sweden?

1-1 (13.2%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (8.0%).

Will both teams score in Netherlands vs Sweden?

The probability that both Netherlands and Sweden score is 48%. Netherlands have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sweden 30%.

How many goals should we expect in Netherlands vs Sweden?

The model expects 2.34 goals (1.21 for Netherlands, 1.13 for Sweden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.

When and where is Netherlands vs Sweden played?

Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston.

What form are Netherlands and Sweden in?

Netherlands: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Sweden: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Netherlands and Sweden?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Netherlands, 0 for Sweden and 1 draw.

What was the Netherlands vs Sweden result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Netherlands 5-1 Sweden. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Netherlands at 38%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.

How is the Netherlands vs Sweden prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.21 for Netherlands, 1.13 for Sweden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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