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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Friday, June 19, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)

Mexico vs South Korea: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

MexicoMexico1 – 0South KoreaSouth Korea

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Mexico 1-0 South Korea. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mexico was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.

Match analysis

Mexico vs South Korea was played on Friday, June 19, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Estadio Akron, Zapopan. Before kick-off, our model gave Mexico a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and South Korea 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.3%), ahead of 1-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.2%).

Mexico are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, South Korea have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Mexico. On average Mexico score 2.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; South Korea score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Mexico sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, South Korea 2nd with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Mexico have averaged 1.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.30 for South Korea.

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Mexico, 0 for South Korea and 1 draw. In double chance terms, "Mexico or draw" stands at 74%, "South Korea or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Mexico enters with four consecutive wins and a perfect World Cup start, while South Korea arrives with a higher expected goals average of 2.3 compared to Mexico's 1.46. Historically, Mexico dominates the head-to-head record with 2 wins and 1 draw against South Korea.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

48%
Mexico (Win)
26%
Draw
26%
South Korea (Win)

Double chance

74%
Mexico or draw
52%
South Korea or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Mexico – South Korea. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Mexico 1-1 South Korea12.3%
Mexico 1-0 South Korea11.9%
Mexico 2-1 South Korea9.2%
Mexico 2-0 South Korea9.0%
Mexico 0-1 South Korea8.2%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.53 goals in total (1.50 for Mexico, 1.03 for South Korea): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 50%. Mexico keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, South Korea in 22%.

Probability
Mexico expected goals1.50
South Korea expected goals1.03
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Mexico clean sheet36%
South Korea clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Mexico

DateOpponentScore
Jun 11, 2026South Africa · FIFA World Cup2-0W
Jun 5, 2026Serbia · International Friendlies5-1W
May 31, 2026Australia · International Friendlies1-0W
May 23, 2026Ghana · International Friendlies2-0W
Apr 1, 2026Belgium · International Friendlies1-1D

South Korea

DateOpponentScore
Jun 12, 2026Czechia · FIFA World Cup2-1W
Jun 4, 2026El Salvador · International Friendlies1-0W
May 31, 2026Trinidad & Tobago · International Friendlies5-0W
Mar 31, 2026Austria · International Friendlies0-1L
Mar 28, 2026Ivory Coast · International Friendlies0-4L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Mexico131
South Korea231

Head-to-head

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Mexico, 0 for South Korea and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

Mexico

No absences reported.

South Korea

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Mexico vs South Korea prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Mexico a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and South Korea 26%. Mexico are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Mexico vs South Korea?

1-1 (12.3%), followed by 1-0 (11.9%), 2-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (9.0%) and 0-1 (8.2%).

Will both teams score in Mexico vs South Korea?

The probability that both Mexico and South Korea score is 50%. Mexico have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, South Korea 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Mexico vs South Korea?

The model expects 2.53 goals (1.50 for Mexico, 1.03 for South Korea). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.

When and where is Mexico vs South Korea played?

Friday, June 19, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio Akron, Zapopan.

What form are Mexico and South Korea in?

Mexico: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 2 conceded). South Korea: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Mexico and South Korea?

In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Mexico, 0 for South Korea and 1 draw.

What was the Mexico vs South Korea result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Mexico 1-0 South Korea. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Mexico was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): correct.

How is the Mexico vs South Korea prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Mexico, 1.03 for South Korea) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained