FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
England vs Croatia: 4-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: England 4-2 Croatia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for England at 55%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
Match analysis
England and Croatia met on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington. Before kick-off, our model gave England a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Croatia 20%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (21.8%), followed by 2-0 (17.8%) and 0-0 (13.3%).
Over their last 4 matches, England have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Over their last 4 matches, Croatia have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average England score 1.25 and concede 0.50 goals per game; Croatia score 1.25 and concede 1.75.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between England and Croatia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "England or draw" stands at 80%, "Croatia or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : England arrives with superior recent form (3 wins in last 5) and top-ranked status, while Croatia shows inconsistency with 2 losses in their last 5 matches and a modest xG average of 0.43. The hosts' stronger form and ranking position them as favorites in this World Cup encounter.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as England – Croatia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (21.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 71% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| England 1-0 Croatia | 21.8% |
| England 2-0 Croatia | 17.8% |
| England 0-0 Croatia | 13.3% |
| England 3-0 Croatia | 9.8% |
| England 1-1 Croatia | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.64 expected goals for England and 0.38 for Croatia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 33% and "both teams to score" at 26%. Few goals are expected here. England keep a clean sheet in 68% of scenarios, Croatia in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| England expected goals | 1.64 |
| Croatia expected goals | 0.38 |
| Both teams to score | 26% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| England clean sheet | 68% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
England
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Costa Rica · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | New Zealand · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Uruguay · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Croatia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Belgium · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Brazil · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Colombia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Croatia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between England and Croatia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
England
No absences reported.
Croatia
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- France 3-1 SenegalJun 16, 2026
- Iraq 1-4 NorwayJun 16, 2026
- Argentina 3-0 AlgeriaJun 17, 2026
- Austria 3-1 JordanJun 17, 2026
- Portugal 1-1 DR CongoJun 17, 2026
- Ghana 1-0 PanamaJun 18, 2026
- Uzbekistan 1-3 ColombiaJun 18, 2026
- Czechia 1-1 South AfricaJun 18, 2026
- Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia & HerzegovinaJun 18, 2026
- Canada 6-0 QatarJun 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the England vs Croatia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave England a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Croatia 20%. England are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-2.
What is the most likely correct score for England vs Croatia?
1-0 (21.8%), followed by 2-0 (17.8%), 0-0 (13.3%), 3-0 (9.8%) and 1-1 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in England vs Croatia?
The probability that both England and Croatia score is 26%. England have a 68% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Croatia 19%.
How many goals should we expect in England vs Croatia?
The model expects 2.02 goals (1.64 for England, 0.38 for Croatia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is England vs Croatia played?
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington.
What form are England and Croatia in?
England: 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches (5 scored, 2 conceded). Croatia: 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 4 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What was the England vs Croatia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: England 4-2 Croatia. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for England at 55%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (33%): missed.
How is the England vs Croatia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for England, 0.38 for Croatia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All England predictions
- All Croatia predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology