FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 23:00 (UK time)
Iraq vs Norway: 1-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Iraq 1-4 Norway. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Norway at 46%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
Match analysis
Iraq and Norway met on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Gillette Stadium, Boston. Before kick-off, our model gave Iraq a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Norway 46%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (11.4%) and 1-2 (9.1%).
Iraq have won just one of their last 3 matches (1 draw, 1 defeat), scoring 2 and conceding 3. Norway have won just one of their last 4 matches (2 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 5 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Iraq score 0.67 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Norway score 1.25 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Iraq and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Iraq or draw" stands at 54%, "Norway or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Norway arrives as the higher-ranked side (4th vs 8th) with a more consistent recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss compared to Iraq's 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. This World Cup encounter features no prior head-to-head history between the teams.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Iraq – Norway. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Iraq 1-1 Norway | 12.4% |
| Iraq 0-1 Norway | 11.4% |
| Iraq 1-2 Norway | 9.1% |
| Iraq 1-0 Norway | 8.4% |
| Iraq 0-2 Norway | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.09 expected goals for Iraq and 1.47 for Norway, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 47% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Iraq keep a clean sheet in 23% of scenarios, Norway in 34%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Iraq expected goals | 1.09 |
| Norway expected goals | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Iraq clean sheet | 23% |
| Norway clean sheet | 34% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Iraq
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Spain · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| May 29, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Norway
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Morocco · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Sweden · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Switzerland · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Netherlands · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Iraq and Norway: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Iraq
No absences reported.
Norway
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Belgium 1-1 EgyptJun 15, 2026
- Saudi Arabia 1-1 UruguayJun 15, 2026
- Iran 2-2 New ZealandJun 16, 2026
- France 3-1 SenegalJun 16, 2026
- Argentina 3-0 AlgeriaJun 17, 2026
- Austria 3-1 JordanJun 17, 2026
- Portugal 1-1 DR CongoJun 17, 2026
- England 4-2 CroatiaJun 17, 2026
- Ghana 1-0 PanamaJun 18, 2026
- Uzbekistan 1-3 ColombiaJun 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Iraq vs Norway prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Iraq a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Norway 46%. Norway are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Iraq vs Norway?
1-1 (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (11.4%), 1-2 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%) and 0-2 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Iraq vs Norway?
The probability that both Iraq and Norway score is 51%. Iraq have a 23% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norway 34%.
How many goals should we expect in Iraq vs Norway?
The model expects 2.56 goals (1.09 for Iraq, 1.47 for Norway). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Iraq vs Norway played?
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 23:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Gillette Stadium, Boston.
What form are Iraq and Norway in?
Iraq: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches (2 scored, 3 conceded). Norway: 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).
What was the Iraq vs Norway result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Iraq 1-4 Norway. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Norway at 46%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
How is the Iraq vs Norway prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.09 for Iraq, 1.47 for Norway) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Iraq predictions
- All Norway predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology