FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
France vs Senegal: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: France 3-1 Senegal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for France was the model's favourite outcome (68%). The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
Match analysis
France vs Senegal was played on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. Before kick-off, our model gave France a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Senegal 14%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (9.9%).
Over their last 4 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Senegal have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with France. On average France score 2.25 and concede 1.25 goals per game; Senegal score 1.40 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between France and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "France or draw" stands at 86%, "Senegal or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : France arrives with stronger recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches compared to Senegal's mixed record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. As the higher-ranked team, France enters as clear favorites in this World Cup encounter.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as France – Senegal. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| France 1-0 Senegal | 11.7% |
| France 1-1 Senegal | 11.4% |
| France 2-0 Senegal | 9.9% |
| France 2-1 Senegal | 9.7% |
| France 0-0 Senegal | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.70 for France, 0.98 for Senegal): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. France keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Senegal in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| France expected goals | 1.70 |
| Senegal expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| France clean sheet | 38% |
| Senegal clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Ivory Coast · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Colombia · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Brazil · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Senegal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | United States · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Gambia · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Peru · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Morocco · Africa Cup of Nations | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between France and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
France
No absences reported.
Senegal
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Spain 0-0 Cape VerdeJun 15, 2026
- Belgium 1-1 EgyptJun 15, 2026
- Saudi Arabia 1-1 UruguayJun 15, 2026
- Iran 2-2 New ZealandJun 16, 2026
- Iraq 1-4 NorwayJun 16, 2026
- Argentina 3-0 AlgeriaJun 17, 2026
- Austria 3-1 JordanJun 17, 2026
- Portugal 1-1 DR CongoJun 17, 2026
- England 4-2 CroatiaJun 17, 2026
- Ghana 1-0 PanamaJun 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the France vs Senegal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave France a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Senegal 14%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for France vs Senegal?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in France vs Senegal?
The probability that both France and Senegal score is 51%. France have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Senegal 18%.
How many goals should we expect in France vs Senegal?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.70 for France, 0.98 for Senegal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is France vs Senegal played?
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.
What form are France and Senegal in?
France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 4 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Senegal: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded).
What was the France vs Senegal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: France 3-1 Senegal. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for France was the model's favourite outcome (68%). The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): correct.
How is the France vs Senegal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.70 for France, 0.98 for Senegal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All France predictions
- All Senegal predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology