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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Thursday, June 18, 2026, 03:00 (UK time)

Uzbekistan vs Colombia: 1-3 result and AI prediction review

UzbekistanUzbekistan1 – 3ColombiaColombia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Colombia was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): missed.

Match analysis

Uzbekistan vs Colombia was played on Thursday, June 18, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. Before kick-off, our model gave Uzbekistan a 25% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Colombia 47%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (14.4%), ahead of 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-0 (10.9%).

Uzbekistan have won just one of their last 4 matches (1 draw, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 8. Over their last 4 matches, Colombia have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Uzbekistan score 1.75 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Colombia score 1.75 and concede 1.50.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Uzbekistan and Colombia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Uzbekistan or draw" stands at 53%, "Colombia or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Colombia enters as the higher-ranked side (4th vs 6th) with a stronger recent record of 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Uzbekistan shows mixed form with 2 wins but also 2 losses in the same period. This World Cup encounter features no prior head-to-head history between the nations, making it an intriguing matchup with Colombia favored based on current form and ranking.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

25%
Uzbekistan (Win)
28%
Draw
47%
Colombia (Win)

Double chance

53%
Uzbekistan or draw
75%
Colombia or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Uzbekistan – Colombia. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Uzbekistan 0-1 Colombia14.4%
Uzbekistan 1-1 Colombia12.9%
Uzbekistan 0-0 Colombia10.9%
Uzbekistan 1-0 Colombia9.7%
Uzbekistan 0-2 Colombia9.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.22 goals in total (0.89 for Uzbekistan, 1.33 for Colombia): over 2.5 goals has a 38% probability and both teams to score 43%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Uzbekistan keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Colombia in 41%.

Probability
Uzbekistan expected goals0.89
Colombia expected goals1.33
Both teams to score43%
Over 1.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Uzbekistan clean sheet26%
Colombia clean sheet41%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Uzbekistan

DateOpponentScore
Jun 8, 2026Netherlands · International Friendlies1-2L
Jun 2, 2026Canada · International Friendlies0-2L
Jan 30, 2026FC Urartu · International Friendlies4-2W
Jan 26, 2026China · International Friendlies2-2D

Colombia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 8, 2026Jordan · International Friendlies2-0W
Jun 2, 2026Costa Rica · International Friendlies3-1W
Mar 29, 2026France · International Friendlies1-3L
Mar 26, 2026Croatia · International Friendlies1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Uzbekistan600
Colombia400

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Uzbekistan and Colombia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Uzbekistan

No absences reported.

Colombia

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Uzbekistan a 25% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Colombia 47%. Colombia are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.

What is the most likely correct score for Uzbekistan vs Colombia?

0-1 (14.4%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%) and 0-2 (9.6%).

Will both teams score in Uzbekistan vs Colombia?

The probability that both Uzbekistan and Colombia score is 43%. Uzbekistan have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Colombia 41%.

How many goals should we expect in Uzbekistan vs Colombia?

The model expects 2.22 goals (0.89 for Uzbekistan, 1.33 for Colombia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 19%.

When and where is Uzbekistan vs Colombia played?

Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City.

What form are Uzbekistan and Colombia in?

Uzbekistan: 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 4 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). Colombia: 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 4 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Uzbekistan vs Colombia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Colombia was the model's favourite outcome (47%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): missed.

How is the Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.89 for Uzbekistan, 1.33 for Colombia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained