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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, June 21, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Spain vs Saudi Arabia: 4-0 result and AI prediction review

SpainSpain4 – 0Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 2-0

Final score: Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (68%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.

Match analysis

Spain vs Saudi Arabia was played on Sunday, June 21, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. Before kick-off, our model gave Spain a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Saudi Arabia 14%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (14.6%), ahead of 3-0 (12.0%) and 1-0 (12.0%).

Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 2. Saudi Arabia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Spain. On average Spain score 1.40 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Saudi Arabia score 1.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Spain sit 6th with 1 points from 1 games, Saudi Arabia 2nd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Spain have averaged 2.10 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.66 for Saudi Arabia.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Spain and Saudi Arabia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Spain or draw" stands at 86%, "Saudi Arabia or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Spain enters with superior expected goals (2.1 vs 0.66 avgXg) and more consistent recent form, though both teams drew their opening World Cup matches. Saudi Arabia's defensive vulnerabilities and significantly lower shot quality make them heavy underdogs despite their current group standing.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

68%
Spain (Win)
18%
Draw
14%
Saudi Arabia (Win)

Double chance

86%
Spain or draw
32%
Saudi Arabia or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Spain – Saudi Arabia. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Spain 2-0 Saudi Arabia14.6%
Spain 3-0 Saudi Arabia12.0%
Spain 1-0 Saudi Arabia12.0%
Spain 2-1 Saudi Arabia8.3%
Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia7.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.02 goals in total (2.45 for Spain, 0.57 for Saudi Arabia): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 40%. Everything points to an open game. Spain keep a clean sheet in 57% of scenarios, Saudi Arabia in 9%.

Probability
Spain expected goals2.45
Saudi Arabia expected goals0.57
Both teams to score40%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Spain clean sheet57%
Saudi Arabia clean sheet9%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Spain

DateOpponentScore
Jun 15, 2026Cape Verde · FIFA World Cup0-0D
Jun 9, 2026Peru · International Friendlies3-1W
Jun 4, 2026Iraq · International Friendlies1-1D
Mar 31, 2026Egypt · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 27, 2026Serbia · International Friendlies3-0W

Saudi Arabia

DateOpponentScore
Jun 15, 2026Uruguay · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 10, 2026Senegal · International Friendlies0-0D
Jun 6, 2026Puerto Rico · International Friendlies3-0W
May 31, 2026Ecuador · International Friendlies1-2L
Mar 31, 2026Serbia · International Friendlies1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Spain611
Saudi Arabia211

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Spain and Saudi Arabia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Spain

No absences reported.

Saudi Arabia

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Spain vs Saudi Arabia prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Spain a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Saudi Arabia 14%. Spain are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

2-0 (14.6%), followed by 3-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (12.0%), 2-1 (8.3%) and 4-0 (7.3%).

Will both teams score in Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

The probability that both Spain and Saudi Arabia score is 40%. Spain have a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Saudi Arabia 9%.

How many goals should we expect in Spain vs Saudi Arabia?

The model expects 3.02 goals (2.45 for Spain, 0.57 for Saudi Arabia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.

When and where is Spain vs Saudi Arabia played?

Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.

What form are Spain and Saudi Arabia in?

Spain: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 2 conceded). Saudi Arabia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded).

What was the Spain vs Saudi Arabia result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (68%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.

How is the Spain vs Saudi Arabia prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.45 for Spain, 0.57 for Saudi Arabia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained