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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)

Norway vs Senegal: 3-2 result and AI prediction review

NorwayNorway3 – 2SenegalSenegal

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-0

Final score: Norway 3-2 Senegal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Norway at 72%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (23%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.

Match analysis

Norway and Senegal met on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. Before kick-off, our model gave Norway a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Senegal 10%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (14.9%), followed by 4-0 (14.9%) and 5-0 (11.9%).

Over their last 5 matches, Norway have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Senegal have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Norway score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Senegal score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Norway sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Senegal 11th with 0 points from 1. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Norway have averaged 2.52 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.53 for Senegal.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Norway and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Norway or draw" stands at 90%, "Senegal or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Norway leads Group A with a dominant opening victory and 2.52 average xG, while Senegal suffered a 2-0 defeat with just 0.53 xG generated. The Scandinavian side's superior form and attacking output position them as heavy favorites against a Senegalese team seeking immediate redemption.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

72%
Norway (Win)
18%
Draw
10%
Senegal (Win)

Double chance

90%
Norway or draw
28%
Senegal or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Norway – Senegal. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Norway 3-0 Senegal14.9%
Norway 4-0 Senegal14.9%
Norway 5-0 Senegal11.9%
Norway 2-0 Senegal11.2%
Norway 6-0 Senegal8.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 4.00 expected goals for Norway and 0.27 for Senegal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 80% and "both teams to score" at 23%. Goals look likely in this one. Norway keep a clean sheet in 76% of scenarios, Senegal in 2%.

Probability
Norway expected goals4.00
Senegal expected goals0.27
Both teams to score23%
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals62%
Norway clean sheet76%
Senegal clean sheet2%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Norway

DateOpponentScore
Jun 16, 2026Iraq · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jun 7, 2026Morocco · International Friendlies1-1D
Jun 1, 2026Sweden · International Friendlies3-1W
Mar 31, 2026Switzerland · International Friendlies0-0D
Mar 27, 2026Netherlands · International Friendlies1-2L

Senegal

DateOpponentScore
Jun 16, 2026France · FIFA World Cup1-3L
Jun 10, 2026Saudi Arabia · International Friendlies0-0D
May 31, 2026United States · International Friendlies2-3L
Mar 31, 2026Gambia · International Friendlies3-1W
Mar 28, 2026Peru · International Friendlies2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Norway131
Senegal1101

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Norway and Senegal: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Norway

No absences reported.

Senegal

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Norway vs Senegal prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Norway a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Senegal 10%. Norway are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Norway vs Senegal?

3-0 (14.9%), followed by 4-0 (14.9%), 5-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.2%) and 6-0 (8.0%).

Will both teams score in Norway vs Senegal?

The probability that both Norway and Senegal score is 23%. Norway have a 76% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Senegal 2%.

How many goals should we expect in Norway vs Senegal?

The model expects 4.27 goals (4.00 for Norway, 0.27 for Senegal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 62%.

When and where is Norway vs Senegal played?

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.

What form are Norway and Senegal in?

Norway: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Senegal: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).

What was the Norway vs Senegal result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Norway 3-2 Senegal. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Norway at 72%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (23%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (80%): correct.

How is the Norway vs Senegal prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Norway, 0.27 for Senegal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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