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FIFA World CupFIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 18:00 (UK time)

Portugal vs Uzbekistan: 5-0 result and AI prediction review

PortugalPortugal5 – 0UzbekistanUzbekistan

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Portugal was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (25%): missed.

Match analysis

Portugal vs Uzbekistan was played on Tuesday, June 23, 2026 (FIFA World Cup). Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston. Before kick-off, our model gave Portugal a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Uzbekistan 16%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (17.6%), ahead of 1-0 (15.6%) and 0-1 (14.9%).

Portugal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 3. Uzbekistan have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Portugal. On average Portugal score 1.40 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Uzbekistan score 1.60 and concede 2.20. In the table, Portugal sit 7th with 1 points from 1 games, Uzbekistan 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Portugal have averaged 0.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.16 for Uzbekistan.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Portugal and Uzbekistan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Portugal or draw" stands at 84%, "Uzbekistan or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 78%.

In short : Portugal enters as heavy favorites despite drawing their opener, ranked 7th globally with stronger recent form, while Uzbekistan arrives winless in this tournament after a 2-goal defeat and shows concerning recent losses despite a higher expected goals average of 1.16. This World Cup clash features a stark contrast between Portugal's stability and Uzbekistan's struggles, with the hosts' defensive solidity likely to prove decisive.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

62%
Portugal (Win)
22%
Draw
16%
Uzbekistan (Win)

Double chance

84%
Portugal or draw
38%
Uzbekistan or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Portugal – Uzbekistan. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Portugal 0-0 Uzbekistan17.6%
Portugal 1-0 Uzbekistan15.6%
Portugal 0-1 Uzbekistan14.9%
Portugal 1-1 Uzbekistan13.3%
Portugal 2-0 Uzbekistan7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.74 goals in total (0.89 for Portugal, 0.85 for Uzbekistan): over 2.5 goals has a 25% probability and both teams to score 34%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Portugal keep a clean sheet in 43% of scenarios, Uzbekistan in 41%.

Probability
Portugal expected goals0.89
Uzbekistan expected goals0.85
Both teams to score34%
Over 1.5 goals52%
Over 2.5 goals25%
Over 3.5 goals10%
Portugal clean sheet43%
Uzbekistan clean sheet41%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Portugal

DateOpponentScore
Jun 17, 2026DR Congo · FIFA World Cup1-1D
Jun 10, 2026Nigeria · International Friendlies2-1W
Jun 6, 2026Chile · International Friendlies2-1W
Apr 1, 2026United States · International Friendlies2-0W
Mar 29, 2026Mexico · International Friendlies0-0D

Uzbekistan

DateOpponentScore
Jun 18, 2026Colombia · FIFA World Cup1-3L
Jun 8, 2026Netherlands · International Friendlies1-2L
Jun 2, 2026Canada · International Friendlies0-2L
Jan 30, 2026FC Urartu · International Friendlies4-2W
Jan 26, 2026China · International Friendlies2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Portugal711
Uzbekistan401

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Portugal and Uzbekistan: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Portugal

No absences reported.

Uzbekistan

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Portugal vs Uzbekistan prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Portugal a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Uzbekistan 16%. Portugal are therefore favourites. Final score: 5-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Portugal vs Uzbekistan?

0-0 (17.6%), followed by 1-0 (15.6%), 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.3%) and 2-0 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in Portugal vs Uzbekistan?

The probability that both Portugal and Uzbekistan score is 34%. Portugal have a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Uzbekistan 41%.

How many goals should we expect in Portugal vs Uzbekistan?

The model expects 1.74 goals (0.89 for Portugal, 0.85 for Uzbekistan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 52%, over 2.5 goals 25%, over 3.5 goals 10%.

When and where is Portugal vs Uzbekistan played?

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 18:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston.

What form are Portugal and Uzbekistan in?

Portugal: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded). Uzbekistan: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 11 conceded).

What was the Portugal vs Uzbekistan result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Portugal was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (0.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (34%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (25%): missed.

How is the Portugal vs Uzbekistan prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.89 for Portugal, 0.85 for Uzbekistan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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