FIFA World Cup· Kick-off : Sunday, June 21, 2026, 23:00 (UK time)
Uruguay vs Cape Verde: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Uruguay (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
Match analysis
Uruguay and Cape Verde met on Sunday, June 21, 2026, a FIFA World Cup fixture. Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. Before kick-off, our model gave Uruguay a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Cape Verde 10%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (20.7%), followed by 1-0 (18.1%) and 3-0 (15.8%).
Uruguay have not won any of their last 3 matches (3 draws, 0 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 2. Cape Verde are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 12 and conceding 3. Cape Verde therefore arrive in far better shape than Uruguay. On average Uruguay score 0.67 and concede 0.67 goals per game; Cape Verde score 2.40 and concede 0.60. In the table, Uruguay sit 2nd with 1 points from 1 games, Cape Verde 6th with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Uruguay have averaged 1.72 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.20 for Cape Verde.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Uruguay and Cape Verde: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Uruguay or draw" stands at 90%, "Cape Verde or draw" at 28% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Uruguay enters with significantly superior expected goals (1.72 vs 0.2 per match) and recent form showing consistency, though their last five games reveal a concerning trend of draws and a loss. Cape Verde Islands, ranked 6th in the group with minimal attacking output, face a formidable challenge against a higher-ranked opponent with substantially better offensive metrics.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Uruguay – Cape Verde. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (20.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 72% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Uruguay 2-0 Cape Verde | 20.7% |
| Uruguay 1-0 Cape Verde | 18.1% |
| Uruguay 3-0 Cape Verde | 15.8% |
| Uruguay 4-0 Cape Verde | 9.0% |
| Uruguay 0-0 Cape Verde | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.29 expected goals for Uruguay and 0.25 for Cape Verde, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 47% and "both teams to score" at 20%. Uruguay keep a clean sheet in 78% of scenarios, Cape Verde in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Uruguay expected goals | 2.29 |
| Cape Verde expected goals | 0.25 |
| Both teams to score | 20% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Uruguay clean sheet | 78% |
| Cape Verde clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Uruguay
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2026 | Saudi Arabia · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Algeria · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | England · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Cape Verde
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bermuda · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| May 31, 2026 | Serbia · International Friendlies | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Eswatini · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Libya · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 3-3 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cape Verde | 6 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Uruguay and Cape Verde: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Uruguay
No absences reported.
Cape Verde
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Netherlands 5-1 SwedenJun 20, 2026
- Germany 2-1 Ivory CoastJun 20, 2026
- Ecuador 0-0 CuraçaoJun 21, 2026
- Tunisia 0-4 JapanJun 21, 2026
- Spain 4-0 Saudi ArabiaJun 21, 2026
- Belgium 0-0 IranJun 21, 2026
- New Zealand 1-3 EgyptJun 22, 2026
- Argentina 2-0 AustriaJun 22, 2026
- France 3-0 IraqJun 22, 2026
- Norway 3-2 SenegalJun 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Uruguay a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Cape Verde 10%. Uruguay are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
2-0 (20.7%), followed by 1-0 (18.1%), 3-0 (15.8%), 4-0 (9.0%) and 0-0 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
The probability that both Uruguay and Cape Verde score is 20%. Uruguay have a 78% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cape Verde 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Uruguay vs Cape Verde?
The model expects 2.54 goals (2.29 for Uruguay, 0.25 for Cape Verde). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Uruguay vs Cape Verde played?
Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 23:00 (UK time), FIFA World Cup. Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens.
What form are Uruguay and Cape Verde in?
Uruguay: 0 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 3 matches (2 scored, 2 conceded). Cape Verde: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the Uruguay vs Cape Verde result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Uruguay (72%), while a draw was rated at only 18%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (20%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
How is the Uruguay vs Cape Verde prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.29 for Uruguay, 0.25 for Cape Verde) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Uruguay predictions
- All Cape Verde predictions
- FIFA World Cup predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology