La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:15 (UK time)
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
La Liga, matchday 8: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. The edge goes to Atletico Madrid (51%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Alaves win (25%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.1%), ahead of 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-1 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Alaves have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Alaves score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Alaves sit 6th with 11 points from 7 games, Atletico Madrid 2nd with 16 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Alaves have averaged 1.26 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Atletico Madrid.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alaves, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 2 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves (Jan 18, 2026). Alaves out or doubtful: F. Garces (suspended), A. Manas and M. Rodriguez. Atletico Madrid: P. Barrios and A. Sorloth. In double chance terms, "Alaves or draw" stands at 49%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Atletico Madrid are tipped by our AI model in this Alaves v Atletico Madrid (51%). In the table, Alaves (6th, 11 pts) host Atletico Madrid (2nd, 16 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alaves – Atletico Madrid. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid | 11.1% |
| Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid | 9.7% |
| Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid | 9.7% |
| Alaves 0-2 Atletico Madrid | 8.4% |
| Alaves 2-1 Atletico Madrid | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.89 goals in total (1.15 for Alaves, 1.74 for Atletico Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 56%. Alaves keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alaves expected goals | 1.15 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 18% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Alaves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2 | 16 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Alaves 2-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Alaves
- F. Garces (suspended)
- A. Manas (out)
- M. Rodriguez (out)
Atletico Madrid
- P. Barrios (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
Most regular starters
Alaves
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rebbach5/5
- N. Tenaglia5/5
- V. Koski5/5
- A. Blanco4/5
- A. Perez4/5
- A. Sivera4/5
- L. Boye4/5
- P. Ibanez4/5
- Jonny Otto3/5
- D. Suarez2/5
- M. Diaz2/5
Atletico Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Oblak5/5
- Lee Kang-In5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- C. Romero4/5
- D. Hancko4/5
- G. Simeone4/5
- M. Llorente4/5
- A. Grimaldo3/5
- A. Lookman3/5
- M. Pubill3/5
- J. Cardoso2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Malaga – EspanyolOct 9, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano – Athletic ClubOct 10, 2026
- Barcelona – GetafeOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Our AI gives Alaves a 25% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 51%. Atletico Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
1-1 (11.1%), followed by 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both Alaves and Atletico Madrid score is 56%. Alaves have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 2.89 goals (1.15 for Alaves, 1.74 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 8. Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
What form are Alaves and Atletico Madrid in?
Alaves: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alaves, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 2 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves (Jan 18, 2026).
How is the Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.15 for Alaves, 1.74 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Alaves predictions
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