La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Elche vs Celta Vigo prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
La Liga, matchday 8: Elche vs Celta Vigo kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche. The edge goes to Celta Vigo (50%), ahead of the draw (27%) and a Elche win (23%). The most likely correct score is 0-1 (14.2%), ahead of 1-1 (12.5%) and 0-2 (10.1%).
Elche have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 11. Celta Vigo have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 3. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Elche score 2.00 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Celta Vigo score 1.40 and concede 0.60. In the table, Elche sit 18th with 5 points from 7 games, Celta Vigo 14th with 7 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Elche have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.37 for Celta Vigo.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Elche, 4 for Celta Vigo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche (May 3, 2026). In double chance terms, "Elche or draw" stands at 50%, "Celta Vigo or draw" at 77% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Celta Vigo are favourites for this Elche v Celta Vigo, with a 50% win probability from our model. In the table, Elche (18th, 5 pts) host Celta Vigo (14th, 7 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Elche – Celta Vigo. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Elche 0-1 Celta Vigo | 14.2% |
| Elche 1-1 Celta Vigo | 12.5% |
| Elche 0-2 Celta Vigo | 10.1% |
| Elche 0-0 Celta Vigo | 10.0% |
| Elche 1-2 Celta Vigo | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.30 goals in total (0.88 for Elche, 1.42 for Celta Vigo): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 44%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Elche keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Celta Vigo in 42%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Elche expected goals | 0.88 |
| Celta Vigo expected goals | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Elche clean sheet | 24% |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 42% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Elche
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Celta Vigo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 18 | 5 | 7 |
| Celta Vigo | 14 | 7 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Elche 2-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Apr 26, 2023 | Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 6, 2023 | Elche 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 15, 2022 | Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Elche
No absences reported.
Celta Vigo
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Elche
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Dituro5/5
- Buba Sangare4/5
- G. Valera4/5
- G. Villar4/5
- V. Chust4/5
- F. Buonanotte3/5
- F. Nino3/5
- J. Morcillo3/5
- R. Revivo3/5
- Tete Morente3/5
- F. Redondo Solari2/5
Celta Vigo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Radu5/5
- I. Moriba4/5
- M. Alonso4/5
- M. Roman4/5
- F. Jutgla3/5
- S. Carreira3/5
- Y. Lago3/5
- A. Nunez2/5
- C. Starfelt2/5
- H. Gonzalez2/5
- J. Rueda2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Malaga – EspanyolOct 9, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano – Athletic ClubOct 10, 2026
- Alaves – Atletico MadridOct 10, 2026
- Barcelona – GetafeOct 10, 2026
- Real Madrid – VillarrealOct 10, 2026
- Real Sociedad – Deportivo La CorunaOct 11, 2026
- Real Betis – OsasunaOct 11, 2026
- Racing Santander – ValenciaOct 11, 2026
- Levante – SevillaOct 12, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Elche vs Celta Vigo prediction?
Our AI gives Elche a 23% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Celta Vigo 50%. Celta Vigo are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Elche vs Celta Vigo?
0-1 (14.2%), followed by 1-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%) and 1-2 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Elche vs Celta Vigo?
The probability that both Elche and Celta Vigo score is 44%. Elche have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Celta Vigo 42%.
How many goals should we expect in Elche vs Celta Vigo?
The model expects 2.30 goals (0.88 for Elche, 1.42 for Celta Vigo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Elche vs Celta Vigo played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 8. Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche.
What form are Elche and Celta Vigo in?
Elche: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 11 conceded). Celta Vigo: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Celta Vigo?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Elche, 4 for Celta Vigo and 0 draws. The most recent ended Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche (May 3, 2026).
How is the Elche vs Celta Vigo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.88 for Elche, 1.42 for Celta Vigo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Elche predictions
- All Celta Vigo predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology