La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Rayo Vallecano take on Athletic Club on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), a La Liga, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid. It is a tight call: 36% for Rayo Vallecano, 25% for the draw and 39% for Athletic Club. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-1 (8.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Athletic Club have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Rayo Vallecano score 1.80 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Athletic Club score 1.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Rayo Vallecano sit 12th with 8 points from 7 games, Athletic Club 10th with 8 points from 6. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Rayo Vallecano have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.48 for Athletic Club.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 4 for Athletic Club and 1 draw. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club (Feb 28, 2026). Rayo Vallecano out or doubtful: A. Batalla, Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, I. Palazon and J. Vertrouwd. Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta and D. Vivian. In double chance terms, "Rayo Vallecano or draw" stands at 61%, "Athletic Club or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 25%). In the table, Rayo Vallecano (12th, 8 pts) host Athletic Club (10th, 8 pts). One to watch: Rayo Vallecano will be without A. Batalla and Luiz Felipe.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club | 11.8% |
| Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Club | 8.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Club | 8.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Athletic Club | 8.2% |
| Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Athletic Club | 8.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.39 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.44 for Athletic Club, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 54% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Athletic Club in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano expected goals | 1.39 |
| Athletic Club expected goals | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 24% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Rayo Vallecano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
Athletic Club
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| Athletic Club | 10 | 8 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Athletic Club 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 25, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Rayo Vallecano
- A. Batalla (out)
- Luiz Felipe (out)
- R. Nteka (out)
- I. Palazon (out)
- J. Vertrouwd (out)
Athletic Club
- U. Egiluz (out)
- G. Guruzeta (out)
- D. Vivian (out)
Most regular starters
Rayo Vallecano
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Lejeune5/5
- P. Ciss5/5
- A. Garcia4/5
- S. Camello4/5
- U. Lopez4/5
- A. Pedrosa3/5
- A. Ratiu3/5
- E. Audero3/5
- P. Diaz3/5
- D. Cardenas2/5
- G. Bouare2/5
Athletic Club
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Williams5/5
- A. Laporte4/5
- O. Sancet4/5
- U. Simon4/5
- B. Gerenabarrena3/5
- I. Ruiz de Galarreta3/5
- J. Areso3/5
- N. Williams3/5
- R. Navarro3/5
- Y. Alvarez3/5
- Y. Berchiche3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Malaga – EspanyolOct 9, 2026
- Alaves – Atletico MadridOct 10, 2026
- Barcelona – GetafeOct 10, 2026
- Real Madrid – VillarrealOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club prediction?
Our AI gives Rayo Vallecano a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Athletic Club 39%. Athletic Club are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-2 (8.5%), 0-1 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%) and 1-0 (8.2%).
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
The probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club score is 57%. Rayo Vallecano have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Athletic Club 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
The model expects 2.83 goals (1.39 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.44 for Athletic Club). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 54%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 8. Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club in?
Rayo Vallecano: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded). Athletic Club: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 4 for Athletic Club and 1 draw. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club (Feb 28, 2026).
How is the Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.39 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.44 for Athletic Club) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rayo Vallecano predictions
- All Athletic Club predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology