La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
La Liga, matchday 8: Real Madrid vs Villarreal kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites: a 82% chance of winning, against 10% for the draw and 8% for Villarreal. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (6.8%), followed by 4-1 (6.8%) and 5-1 (5.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Real Madrid therefore arrive in far better shape than Villarreal. On average Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Villarreal score 2.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, Real Madrid sit 4th with 15 points from 7 games, Villarreal 9th with 8 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Real Madrid have averaged 2.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.16 for Villarreal.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Villarreal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid (Jan 24, 2026). Real Madrid out or doubtful: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. Villarreal: S. Comesana. In double chance terms, "Real Madrid or draw" stands at 92%, "Villarreal or draw" at 18% and "no draw" at 90%.
In short : Our model backs Real Madrid to edge Villarreal (82% probability). In the table, Real Madrid (4th, 15 pts) host Villarreal (9th, 8 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 90%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Real Madrid – Villarreal. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (6.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal | 6.8% |
| Real Madrid 4-1 Villarreal | 6.8% |
| Real Madrid 5-1 Villarreal | 5.4% |
| Real Madrid 2-1 Villarreal | 5.1% |
| Real Madrid 3-0 Villarreal | 5.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 4.00 expected goals for Real Madrid and 1.37 for Villarreal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 90% and "both teams to score" at 73%. Goals look likely in this one. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Villarreal in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid expected goals | 4.00 |
| Villarreal expected goals | 1.37 |
| Both teams to score | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 78% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 25% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 4 | 15 | 7 |
| Villarreal | 9 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Villarreal 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Real Madrid
- Eder Militao (out)
- F. Mendy (out)
- Rodrygo (out)
Villarreal
- S. Comesana (out)
Most regular starters
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Valverde5/5
- T. Courtois5/5
- D. Dumfries4/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- I. Konate4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- Vinicius Junior4/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- T. Alexander-Arnold2/5
Villarreal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Saliba4/5
- P. Gueye4/5
- T. Buchanan4/5
- A. Freeman3/5
- R. Veiga3/5
- Alberto Moleiro2/5
- Ayoze Pérez2/5
- G. Mikautadze2/5
- G. Moreno2/5
- Ilias Akhomach2/5
- N. Pepe2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Malaga – EspanyolOct 9, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano – Athletic ClubOct 10, 2026
- Alaves – Atletico MadridOct 10, 2026
- Barcelona – GetafeOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction?
Our AI gives Real Madrid a 82% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Villarreal 8%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
3-1 (6.8%), followed by 4-1 (6.8%), 5-1 (5.4%), 2-1 (5.1%) and 3-0 (5.0%).
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The probability that both Real Madrid and Villarreal score is 73%. Real Madrid have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model expects 5.37 goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 1.37 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 90%, over 3.5 goals 78%.
When and where is Real Madrid vs Villarreal played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 8. Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid.
What form are Real Madrid and Villarreal in?
Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Villarreal: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Villarreal?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Villarreal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid (Jan 24, 2026).
How is the Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Real Madrid, 1.37 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Real Madrid predictions
- All Villarreal predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology