La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
La Liga, matchday 9: the Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time). Venue: RCDE Stadium, Cornella. With a 69% win probability, Atletico Madrid go in as strong favourites against Espanyol (13%), with the draw rated at 18%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (11.2%), ahead of 0-1 (10.0%) and 1-2 (9.7%).
Espanyol have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Atletico Madrid. On average Espanyol score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Espanyol sit 15th with 7 points from 7 games, Atletico Madrid 2nd with 16 points from 7. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Espanyol have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Atletico Madrid.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Espanyol, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 3 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 4-2 Espanyol (Feb 21, 2026). Espanyol out or doubtful: K. Garcia, J. Puado and Jofre (doubtful). Atletico Madrid: A. Sorloth (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Espanyol or draw" stands at 31%, "Atletico Madrid or draw" at 87% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Atletico Madrid are tipped by our AI model in this Espanyol v Atletico Madrid (69%). In the table, Espanyol (15th, 7 pts) host Atletico Madrid (2nd, 16 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Espanyol – Atletico Madrid. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (11.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Espanyol 0-2 Atletico Madrid | 11.2% |
| Espanyol 0-1 Atletico Madrid | 10.0% |
| Espanyol 1-2 Atletico Madrid | 9.7% |
| Espanyol 1-1 Atletico Madrid | 8.7% |
| Espanyol 0-3 Atletico Madrid | 8.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.11 goals in total (0.87 for Espanyol, 2.24 for Atletico Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 60% probability and both teams to score 52%. Everything points to an open game. Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 11% of scenarios, Atletico Madrid in 42%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Espanyol expected goals | 0.87 |
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 11% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 42% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Espanyol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 15 | 7 | 7 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2 | 16 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-2 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Espanyol 2-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Espanyol 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 0-0 Espanyol | La Liga |
| May 24, 2023 | Espanyol 3-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Espanyol
- K. Garcia (out)
- J. Puado (out)
- Jofre (doubtful)
Atletico Madrid
- A. Sorloth (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Espanyol
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Hernandez4/5
- L. Cabrera4/5
- M. Dmitrovic4/5
- O. El Hilali4/5
- R. Fernandez Jaen4/5
- R. Hinojo4/5
- Exposito3/5
- T. Dolan3/5
- U. Gonzalez3/5
- A. Calatrava2/5
- C. Riedel2/5
Atletico Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Oblak5/5
- Lee Kang-In5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- C. Romero4/5
- D. Hancko4/5
- G. Simeone4/5
- M. Llorente4/5
- A. Grimaldo3/5
- A. Lookman3/5
- M. Pubill3/5
- J. Cardoso2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo La Coruna – LevanteOct 16, 2026
- Villarreal – ElcheOct 17, 2026
- Real Betis – BarcelonaOct 17, 2026
- Valencia – Athletic ClubOct 17, 2026
- Osasuna – Racing SantanderOct 18, 2026
- Celta Vigo – AlavesOct 18, 2026
- Malaga – Real SociedadOct 18, 2026
- Real Madrid – SevillaOct 18, 2026
- Getafe – Rayo VallecanoOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Our AI gives Espanyol a 13% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Atletico Madrid 69%. Atletico Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
0-2 (11.2%), followed by 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (8.7%) and 0-3 (8.4%).
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
The probability that both Espanyol and Atletico Madrid score is 52%. Espanyol have a 11% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atletico Madrid 42%.
How many goals should we expect in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
The model expects 3.11 goals (0.87 for Espanyol, 2.24 for Atletico Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 9. Venue: RCDE Stadium, Cornella.
What form are Espanyol and Atletico Madrid in?
Espanyol: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Atletico Madrid?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Espanyol, 1 for Atletico Madrid and 3 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 4-2 Espanyol (Feb 21, 2026).
How is the Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.87 for Espanyol, 2.24 for Atletico Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Espanyol predictions
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
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