La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
La Liga, matchday 9: the Osasuna vs Racing Santander match is scheduled on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona. The edge goes to Osasuna (49%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Racing Santander win (27%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.2%), ahead of 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (9.4%).
Osasuna have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Racing Santander have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 18. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Osasuna score 0.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Racing Santander score 1.80 and concede 3.60. In the table, Osasuna sit 13th with 8 points from 7 games, Racing Santander 16th with 7 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Osasuna have averaged 1.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.40 for Racing Santander.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Osasuna, 2 for Racing Santander and 0 draws. The most recent ended Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander (Jul 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Osasuna or draw" stands at 73%, "Racing Santander or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Osasuna are favourites for this Osasuna v Racing Santander, with a 49% win probability from our model. In the table, Osasuna (13th, 8 pts) host Racing Santander (16th, 7 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Osasuna – Racing Santander. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Osasuna 1-1 Racing Santander | 11.2% |
| Osasuna 2-1 Racing Santander | 9.6% |
| Osasuna 1-0 Racing Santander | 9.4% |
| Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander | 8.0% |
| Osasuna 1-2 Racing Santander | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.90 goals in total (1.71 for Osasuna, 1.19 for Racing Santander): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 57%. Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Racing Santander in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Osasuna expected goals | 1.71 |
| Racing Santander expected goals | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 30% |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Osasuna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
Racing Santander
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 2-7 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 13 | 8 | 7 |
| Racing Santander | 16 | 7 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander | Club Friendlies |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Osasuna 0-1 Racing Santander | Club Friendlies |
| May 13, 2012 | Racing Santander 2-4 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Jan 15, 2012 | Osasuna 0-2 Racing Santander | La Liga |
| Mar 13, 2011 | Osasuna 3-1 Racing Santander | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Osasuna
No absences reported.
Racing Santander
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Osasuna
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Garcia6/5
- A. Budimir4/5
- I. Arguibide4/5
- A. Bretones3/5
- A. Catena3/5
- I. Munoz3/5
- J. Moncayola3/5
- S. Herrera3/5
- F. Boyomo2/5
- M. Gomez2/5
- R. Yeboah2/5
Racing Santander
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Agirrezabala4/5
- S. Canales4/5
- A. Mantilla3/5
- F. Gonzalez3/5
- I. Martin3/5
- I. Vicente3/5
- J. Salinas3/5
- M. Prati3/5
- Manu Hernando3/5
- Y. Zabiri3/5
- A. Martin2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo La Coruna – LevanteOct 16, 2026
- Espanyol – Atletico MadridOct 17, 2026
- Villarreal – ElcheOct 17, 2026
- Real Betis – BarcelonaOct 17, 2026
- Valencia – Athletic ClubOct 17, 2026
- Celta Vigo – AlavesOct 18, 2026
- Malaga – Real SociedadOct 18, 2026
- Real Madrid – SevillaOct 18, 2026
- Getafe – Rayo VallecanoOct 19, 2026
- Levante – Athletic ClubOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction?
Our AI gives Osasuna a 49% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Racing Santander 27%. Osasuna are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
1-1 (11.2%), followed by 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.0%) and 1-2 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
The probability that both Osasuna and Racing Santander score is 57%. Osasuna have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Racing Santander 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
The model expects 2.90 goals (1.71 for Osasuna, 1.19 for Racing Santander). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Osasuna vs Racing Santander played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 9. Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona.
What form are Osasuna and Racing Santander in?
Osasuna: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded). Racing Santander: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 18 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Racing Santander?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Osasuna, 2 for Racing Santander and 0 draws. The most recent ended Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander (Jul 24, 2026).
How is the Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Osasuna, 1.19 for Racing Santander) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Osasuna predictions
- All Racing Santander predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology