La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 15:15 (UK time)
Villarreal vs Elche prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Villarreal take on Elche on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), a La Liga, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal. Our model makes Villarreal clear favourites: a 84% chance of winning, against 11% for the draw and 5% for Elche. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%) and 4-0 (8.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Elche have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Villarreal score 2.20 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Elche score 2.00 and concede 2.20. In the table, Villarreal sit 9th with 8 points from 7 games, Elche 18th with 5 points from 7. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Villarreal have averaged 2.16 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.91 for Elche.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Elche and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 2-1 Elche (Mar 8, 2026). In double chance terms, "Villarreal or draw" stands at 95%, "Elche or draw" at 16% and "no draw" at 89%.
In short : Villarreal are tipped by our AI model in this Villarreal v Elche (84%). In the table, Villarreal (9th, 8 pts) host Elche (18th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Villarreal – Elche. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal 3-0 Elche | 11.7% |
| Villarreal 2-0 Elche | 11.7% |
| Villarreal 4-0 Elche | 8.8% |
| Villarreal 1-0 Elche | 7.7% |
| Villarreal 3-1 Elche | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.01 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.65 for Elche, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 71% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Goals look likely in this one. Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 52% of scenarios, Elche in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Villarreal expected goals | 3.01 |
| Elche expected goals | 0.65 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 52% |
| Elche clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Elche
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Elche | 18 | 5 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Villarreal 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Elche 1-3 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Elche 3-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Villarreal 4-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2022 | Elche 1-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Villarreal
No absences reported.
Elche
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Villarreal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Saliba4/5
- P. Gueye4/5
- T. Buchanan4/5
- A. Freeman3/5
- R. Veiga3/5
- Alberto Moleiro2/5
- Ayoze Pérez2/5
- G. Mikautadze2/5
- G. Moreno2/5
- Ilias Akhomach2/5
- N. Pepe2/5
Elche
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Dituro5/5
- Buba Sangare4/5
- G. Valera4/5
- G. Villar4/5
- V. Chust4/5
- F. Buonanotte3/5
- F. Nino3/5
- J. Morcillo3/5
- R. Revivo3/5
- Tete Morente3/5
- F. Redondo Solari2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo La Coruna – LevanteOct 16, 2026
- Espanyol – Atletico MadridOct 17, 2026
- Real Betis – BarcelonaOct 17, 2026
- Valencia – Athletic ClubOct 17, 2026
- Osasuna – Racing SantanderOct 18, 2026
- Celta Vigo – AlavesOct 18, 2026
- Malaga – Real SociedadOct 18, 2026
- Real Madrid – SevillaOct 18, 2026
- Getafe – Rayo VallecanoOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Villarreal vs Elche prediction?
Our AI gives Villarreal a 84% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Elche 5%. Villarreal are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Villarreal vs Elche?
3-0 (11.7%), followed by 2-0 (11.7%), 4-0 (8.8%), 1-0 (7.7%) and 3-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Elche?
The probability that both Villarreal and Elche score is 45%. Villarreal have a 52% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Elche 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Villarreal vs Elche?
The model expects 3.66 goals (3.01 for Villarreal, 0.65 for Elche). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 71%, over 3.5 goals 50%.
When and where is Villarreal vs Elche played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 9. Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal.
What form are Villarreal and Elche in?
Villarreal: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 10 conceded). Elche: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Elche?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Elche and 0 draws. The most recent ended Villarreal 2-1 Elche (Mar 8, 2026).
How is the Villarreal vs Elche prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.01 for Villarreal, 0.65 for Elche) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Villarreal predictions
- All Elche predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology