La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
La Liga, matchday 9: Real Madrid vs Sevilla kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites: a 89% chance of winning, against 8% for the draw and 3% for Sevilla. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (14.5%), followed by 2-0 (13.7%) and 4-0 (11.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Sevilla have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Sevilla score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Real Madrid sit 4th with 15 points from 7 games, Sevilla 5th with 13 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Real Madrid have averaged 2.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.53 for Sevilla.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Sevilla and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid (May 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Real Madrid or draw" stands at 97%, "Sevilla or draw" at 11% and "no draw" at 92%.
In short : Real Madrid are tipped by our AI model in this Real Madrid v Sevilla (89%). In the table, Real Madrid (4th, 15 pts) host Sevilla (5th, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Real Madrid – Sevilla. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid 3-0 Sevilla | 14.5% |
| Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla | 13.7% |
| Real Madrid 4-0 Sevilla | 11.5% |
| Real Madrid 1-0 Sevilla | 8.7% |
| Real Madrid 5-0 Sevilla | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.17 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.43 for Sevilla, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 70% and "both teams to score" at 34%. Goals look likely in this one. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 65% of scenarios, Sevilla in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid expected goals | 3.17 |
| Sevilla expected goals | 0.43 |
| Both teams to score | 34% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 65% |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter · UEFA Champions League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
Sevilla
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Aston Villa · Club Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 4 | 15 | 7 |
| Sevilla | 5 | 13 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Sevilla 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-2 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Real Madrid 1-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Real Madrid
No absences reported.
Sevilla
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Valverde5/5
- T. Courtois5/5
- D. Dumfries4/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- I. Konate4/5
- J. Bellingham4/5
- K. Mbappe4/5
- Vinicius Junior4/5
- M. Cucurella3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- T. Alexander-Arnold2/5
Sevilla
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Suazo4/4
- J. Iglesias4/4
- L. Agoume4/4
- M. Sierra4/4
- O. Vlachodimos4/4
- Castrin3/4
- F. Correia3/4
- K. Salas3/4
- Y. Fofana3/4
- A. Sangante2/4
- G. Kochorashvili2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo La Coruna – LevanteOct 16, 2026
- Espanyol – Atletico MadridOct 17, 2026
- Villarreal – ElcheOct 17, 2026
- Real Betis – BarcelonaOct 17, 2026
- Valencia – Athletic ClubOct 17, 2026
- Osasuna – Racing SantanderOct 18, 2026
- Celta Vigo – AlavesOct 18, 2026
- Malaga – Real SociedadOct 18, 2026
- Getafe – Rayo VallecanoOct 19, 2026
- Levante – Athletic ClubOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction?
Our AI gives Real Madrid a 89% chance of winning, the draw 8% and Sevilla 3%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
3-0 (14.5%), followed by 2-0 (13.7%), 4-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (8.7%) and 5-0 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The probability that both Real Madrid and Sevilla score is 34%. Real Madrid have a 65% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sevilla 4%.
How many goals should we expect in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The model expects 3.60 goals (3.17 for Real Madrid, 0.43 for Sevilla). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is Real Madrid vs Sevilla played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 9.
What form are Real Madrid and Sevilla in?
Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded). Sevilla: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Sevilla?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for Real Madrid, 0 for Sevilla and 0 draws. The most recent ended Sevilla 0-1 Real Madrid (May 17, 2026).
How is the Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.17 for Real Madrid, 0.43 for Sevilla) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Real Madrid predictions
- All Sevilla predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology