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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)

Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction: correct score and AI tips

MalagaMalaga–Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Match analysis

Malaga take on Real Sociedad on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), a La Liga, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: La Rosaleda, Malaga. Our model makes Real Sociedad clear favourites: a 67% chance of winning, against 21% for the draw and 12% for Malaga. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.8%), followed by 0-2 (14.6%) and 1-1 (9.6%).

Malaga have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Real Sociedad therefore arrive in far better shape than Malaga. On average Malaga score 0.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Real Sociedad score 1.40 and concede 2.00. In the table, Malaga sit 20th with 3 points from 7 games, Real Sociedad 8th with 10 points from 7. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Malaga have averaged 0.78 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Real Sociedad.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Malaga and Real Sociedad: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Malaga out or doubtful: J. Lobete, A. Ochoa, J. Salinas, J. Cajuste (doubtful), M. Diarra (doubtful) and D. Murillo (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Malaga or draw" stands at 33%, "Real Sociedad or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 79%.

In short : Real Sociedad are tipped by our AI model in this Malaga v Real Sociedad (67%). In the table, Malaga (20th, 3 pts) host Real Sociedad (8th, 10 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

12%
Malaga (Win)
21%
Draw
67%
Real Sociedad (Win)

Double chance

33%
Malaga or draw
88%
Real Sociedad or draw
79%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Malaga – Real Sociedad. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Malaga 0-1 Real Sociedad15.8%
Malaga 0-2 Real Sociedad14.6%
Malaga 1-1 Real Sociedad9.6%
Malaga 0-3 Real Sociedad9.0%
Malaga 1-2 Real Sociedad8.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.61 expected goals for Malaga and 1.85 for Real Sociedad, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 45% and "both teams to score" at 39%. Malaga keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Real Sociedad in 54%.

Probability
Malaga expected goals0.61
Real Sociedad expected goals1.85
Both teams to score39%
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Malaga clean sheet16%
Real Sociedad clean sheet54%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Malaga

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Getafe · La Liga0-1L
Sep 17, 2026Villarreal · La Liga1-3L
Sep 13, 2026Celta Vigo · La Liga1-1D
Sep 6, 2026Levante · La Liga0-0D
Aug 30, 2026Real Madrid · La Liga0-4L

Real Sociedad

DateOpponentScore
Oct 2, 2026Athletic Club · Club Friendlies0-1L
Sep 20, 2026Valencia · La Liga3-2W
Sep 17, 2026Bournemouth · UEFA Europa League1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga0-3L
Sep 7, 2026Elche · La Liga3-2W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Malaga2037
Real Sociedad8107

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Malaga and Real Sociedad: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Malaga

  • J. Lobete (out)
  • A. Ochoa (out)
  • J. Salinas (out)
  • J. Cajuste (doubtful)
  • M. Diarra (doubtful)
  • D. Murillo (doubtful)

Real Sociedad

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Malaga

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • Chupe4/5
  • Rafita4/5
  • A. Herrero3/5
  • A. Recio3/5
  • D. Larrubia3/5
  • E. Galilea3/5
  • Alfonso Herrero2/5
  • Ángel Recio2/5
  • C. Dotor2/5
  • Carlos Dotor2/5
  • D. Lorenzo2/5

Real Sociedad

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • G. Guedes4/5
  • A. Remiro3/5
  • C. Soler3/5
  • J. Aramburu3/5
  • L. Beitia3/5
  • L. Sucic3/5
  • M. Oyarzabal3/5
  • M. Sarr3/5
  • S. Gomez3/5
  • Y. Herrera3/5
  • J. Gorrotxategi2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction?

Our AI gives Malaga a 12% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Sociedad 67%. Real Sociedad are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

0-1 (15.8%), followed by 0-2 (14.6%), 1-1 (9.6%), 0-3 (9.0%) and 1-2 (8.9%).

Will both teams score in Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

The probability that both Malaga and Real Sociedad score is 39%. Malaga have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Sociedad 54%.

How many goals should we expect in Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

The model expects 2.46 goals (0.61 for Malaga, 1.85 for Real Sociedad). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 23%.

When and where is Malaga vs Real Sociedad played?

Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 9. Venue: La Rosaleda, Malaga.

What form are Malaga and Real Sociedad in?

Malaga: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 9 conceded). Real Sociedad: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded).

How is the Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.61 for Malaga, 1.85 for Real Sociedad) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained