La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
La Liga, matchday 9: the Valencia vs Athletic Club match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. With a 76% win probability, Athletic Club go in as strong favourites against Valencia (9%), with the draw rated at 15%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (10.8%), ahead of 0-3 (9.6%) and 1-2 (9.0%).
Valencia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 12. Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Athletic Club. On average Valencia score 0.80 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Athletic Club score 1.40 and concede 0.20. In the table, Valencia sit 19th with 4 points from 7 games, Athletic Club 10th with 8 points from 6. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Valencia have averaged 1.06 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.09 for Athletic Club.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Valencia, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. The most recent ended Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia (May 10, 2026). Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, O. Sancet and N. Williams. In double chance terms, "Valencia or draw" stands at 24%, "Athletic Club or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 85%.
In short : Our model backs Athletic Club to edge Valencia (76% probability). On recent form, Valencia are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Athletic Club have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 68%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Valencia – Athletic Club. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Valencia 0-2 Athletic Club | 10.8% |
| Valencia 0-3 Athletic Club | 9.6% |
| Valencia 1-2 Athletic Club | 9.0% |
| Valencia 0-1 Athletic Club | 8.1% |
| Valencia 1-3 Athletic Club | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.49 goals in total (0.83 for Valencia, 2.66 for Athletic Club): over 2.5 goals has a 68% probability and both teams to score 52%. Everything points to an open game. Valencia keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Athletic Club in 44%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Valencia expected goals | 0.83 |
| Athletic Club expected goals | 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% |
| Valencia clean sheet | 7% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 44% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Valencia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 0-5 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
Athletic Club
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 19 | 4 | 7 |
| Athletic Club | 10 | 8 | 6 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Valencia 1-2 Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Valencia 2-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Valencia
No absences reported.
Athletic Club
- U. Egiluz (out)
- O. Sancet (out)
- N. Williams (out)
Most regular starters
Valencia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Ugrinic5/5
- Pepelu5/5
- S. Dimitrievski5/5
- A. Danjuma4/5
- J. Guerra4/5
- A. Martinez3/5
- A. Dieng2/5
- C. Tarrega2/5
- D. Otorbi2/5
- J. Gaya2/5
- J. Vazquez2/5
Athletic Club
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Navarro5/5
- A. Laporte4/5
- I. Ruiz de Galarreta4/5
- I. Williams4/5
- O. Sancet4/5
- U. Simon4/5
- Y. Berchiche4/5
- A. Paredes3/5
- B. Gerenabarrena3/5
- J. Areso3/5
- N. Williams3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo La Coruna – LevanteOct 16, 2026
- Espanyol – Atletico MadridOct 17, 2026
- Villarreal – ElcheOct 17, 2026
- Real Betis – BarcelonaOct 17, 2026
- Osasuna – Racing SantanderOct 18, 2026
- Celta Vigo – AlavesOct 18, 2026
- Malaga – Real SociedadOct 18, 2026
- Real Madrid – SevillaOct 18, 2026
- Getafe – Rayo VallecanoOct 19, 2026
- Levante – Athletic ClubOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction?
Our AI gives Valencia a 9% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Athletic Club 76%. Athletic Club are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Valencia vs Athletic Club?
0-2 (10.8%), followed by 0-3 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.1%) and 1-3 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Athletic Club?
The probability that both Valencia and Athletic Club score is 52%. Valencia have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Athletic Club 44%.
How many goals should we expect in Valencia vs Athletic Club?
The model expects 3.49 goals (0.83 for Valencia, 2.66 for Athletic Club). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 68%, over 3.5 goals 46%.
When and where is Valencia vs Athletic Club played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 9. Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia.
What form are Valencia and Athletic Club in?
Valencia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 12 conceded). Athletic Club: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 1 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Athletic Club?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Valencia, 1 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. The most recent ended Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia (May 10, 2026).
How is the Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.83 for Valencia, 2.66 for Athletic Club) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Valencia predictions
- All Athletic Club predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology