La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 15:15 (UK time)
Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Celta Vigo take on Alaves on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), a La Liga, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Celta Vigo 32%, Alaves 42% and the draw 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.4%), ahead of 0-1 (10.2%) and 1-2 (8.8%).
Celta Vigo have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Alaves have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Celta Vigo score 1.40 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Alaves score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Celta Vigo sit 14th with 7 points from 7 games, Alaves 6th with 11 points from 7. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Celta Vigo have averaged 1.37 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.26 for Alaves.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 2 for Alaves and 1 draw. The most recent ended Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves (Mar 22, 2026). Alaves: F. Garces (suspended), V. Koski and M. Rodriguez. In double chance terms, "Celta Vigo or draw" stands at 58%, "Alaves or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Alaves are favourites for this Celta Vigo v Alaves, with a 42% win probability from our model. In the table, Celta Vigo (14th, 7 pts) host Alaves (6th, 11 pts). One to watch: Alaves will be without F. Garces and V. Koski.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Celta Vigo – Alaves. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Celta Vigo 1-1 Alaves | 12.4% |
| Celta Vigo 0-1 Alaves | 10.2% |
| Celta Vigo 1-2 Alaves | 8.8% |
| Celta Vigo 1-0 Alaves | 8.7% |
| Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves | 7.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.63 goals in total (1.21 for Celta Vigo, 1.42 for Alaves): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 53%. Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Alaves in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Celta Vigo expected goals | 1.21 |
| Alaves expected goals | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 24% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Celta Vigo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
Alaves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 5-2 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 14 | 7 | 7 |
| Alaves | 6 | 11 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves | La Liga |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Alaves 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Celta Vigo
No absences reported.
Alaves
- F. Garces (suspended)
- V. Koski (out)
- M. Rodriguez (out)
Most regular starters
Celta Vigo
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Radu5/5
- I. Moriba4/5
- M. Alonso4/5
- M. Roman4/5
- F. Jutgla3/5
- S. Carreira3/5
- Y. Lago3/5
- A. Nunez2/5
- C. Starfelt2/5
- H. Gonzalez2/5
- J. Rueda2/5
Alaves
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rebbach5/5
- N. Tenaglia5/5
- V. Koski5/5
- A. Blanco4/5
- A. Perez4/5
- A. Sivera4/5
- L. Boye4/5
- P. Ibanez4/5
- Jonny Otto3/5
- D. Suarez2/5
- M. Diaz2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo La Coruna – LevanteOct 16, 2026
- Espanyol – Atletico MadridOct 17, 2026
- Villarreal – ElcheOct 17, 2026
- Real Betis – BarcelonaOct 17, 2026
- Valencia – Athletic ClubOct 17, 2026
- Osasuna – Racing SantanderOct 18, 2026
- Malaga – Real SociedadOct 18, 2026
- Real Madrid – SevillaOct 18, 2026
- Getafe – Rayo VallecanoOct 19, 2026
- Levante – Athletic ClubOct 21, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction?
Our AI gives Celta Vigo a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alaves 42%. Alaves are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
1-1 (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (8.8%), 1-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (7.5%).
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
The probability that both Celta Vigo and Alaves score is 53%. Celta Vigo have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alaves 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.21 for Celta Vigo, 1.42 for Alaves). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Celta Vigo vs Alaves played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 9. Venue: Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo.
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in?
Celta Vigo: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 3 conceded). Alaves: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 2 for Alaves and 1 draw. The most recent ended Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves (Mar 22, 2026).
How is the Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.21 for Celta Vigo, 1.42 for Alaves) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Celta Vigo predictions
- All Alaves predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology