Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 01:00 (UK time)
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Alianza Lima 1-0 Cienciano. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Alianza Lima was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): missed.
Match analysis
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano was played on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. Before kick-off, our model gave Alianza Lima a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cienciano 30%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (8.9%), ahead of 2-1 (8.9%) and 1-2 (6.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Lima have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Cienciano have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Alianza Lima score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Cienciano score 1.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Alianza Lima sit 8th with 25 points from 14 games, Cienciano 12th with 17 points from 14. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Alianza Lima have averaged 1.49 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.08 for Cienciano.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alianza Lima, 0 for Cienciano and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cienciano 0-1 Alianza Lima (May 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "Alianza Lima or draw" stands at 70%, "Cienciano or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Alianza Lima to edge Cienciano (48% probability). In the table, Alianza Lima (8th, 25 pts) host Cienciano (12th, 17 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 69%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Alianza Lima – Cienciano. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alianza Lima 1-1 Cienciano | 8.9% |
| Alianza Lima 2-1 Cienciano | 8.9% |
| Alianza Lima 1-2 Cienciano | 6.9% |
| Alianza Lima 2-2 Cienciano | 6.9% |
| Alianza Lima 3-1 Cienciano | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.55 goals in total (2.00 for Alianza Lima, 1.55 for Cienciano): over 2.5 goals has a 69% probability and both teams to score 68%. Everything points to an open game. Alianza Lima keep a clean sheet in 21% of scenarios, Cienciano in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Alianza Lima expected goals | 2.00 |
| Cienciano expected goals | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score | 68% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 21% |
| Cienciano clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Alianza Lima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Cusco · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Palestino · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Cienciano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 19, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 8, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 8 | 25 | 14 |
| Cienciano | 12 | 17 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Cienciano 0-1 Alianza Lima | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Alianza Lima
No absences reported.
Cienciano
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Alianza Lima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Duarte5/5
- E. Castillo4/5
- F. Gaibor4/5
- K. Quevedo4/5
- F. Girotti3/5
- G. Chavez3/5
- G. Gentile3/5
- J. Velez3/5
- L. Advincula3/5
- M. Huaman3/5
- R. Garces3/5
Cienciano
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Becerra5/5
- M. Amondarain5/5
- N. Bandiera5/5
- C. Nunez4/5
- C. Souza Espana4/5
- M. Martinich4/5
- C. Cabello3/5
- C. Garces3/5
- G. Barreto3/5
- G. Falcon3/5
- R. Sandoval3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Alianza Atletico 1-0 Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 31, 2026
- UCV Moquegua 0-0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasNov 1, 2026
- Cusco 0-1 Sport BoysNov 1, 2026
- Atletico Grau 1-3 UniversitarioNov 1, 2026
- Sport Huancayo 2-0 FBC MelgarNov 2, 2026
- UTC Cajamarca 2-3 Deportivo GarcilasoNov 2, 2026
- Sporting Cristal 5-0 FC CajamarcaNov 2, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 ADTNov 3, 2026
- Universitario 2-2 Sport BoysNov 5, 2026
- Atletico Grau 3-0 CuscoNov 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Alianza Lima vs Cienciano prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Alianza Lima a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cienciano 30%. Alianza Lima are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
1-1 (8.9%), followed by 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (6.9%), 2-2 (6.9%) and 3-1 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
The probability that both Alianza Lima and Cienciano score is 68%. Alianza Lima have a 21% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cienciano 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?
The model expects 3.55 goals (2.00 for Alianza Lima, 1.55 for Cienciano). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 69%, over 3.5 goals 47%.
When and where is Alianza Lima vs Cienciano played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 01:00 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima.
What form are Alianza Lima and Cienciano in?
Alianza Lima: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Cienciano: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Alianza Lima and Cienciano?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Alianza Lima, 0 for Cienciano and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cienciano 0-1 Alianza Lima (May 16, 2026).
What was the Alianza Lima vs Cienciano result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Alianza Lima 1-0 Cienciano. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Alianza Lima was the model's favourite outcome (48%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): missed.
How is the Alianza Lima vs Cienciano prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.00 for Alianza Lima, 1.55 for Cienciano) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Alianza Lima predictions
- All Cienciano predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology