Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Monday, November 2, 2026, 18:15 (UK time)
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: UTC Cajamarca 2-3 Deportivo Garcilaso. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Deportivo Garcilaso at 71%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
Match analysis
UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso met on Monday, November 2, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca. Before kick-off, our model gave UTC Cajamarca a 10% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Deportivo Garcilaso 71%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (13.9%), followed by 0-1 (13.2%) and 0-3 (9.9%).
UTC Cajamarca have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Garcilaso have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average UTC Cajamarca score 1.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Deportivo Garcilaso score 2.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, UTC Cajamarca sit 18th with 5 points from 14 games, Deportivo Garcilaso 6th with 25 points from 14. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, UTC Cajamarca have averaged 0.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.51 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for UTC Cajamarca, 1 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (May 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "UTC Cajamarca or draw" stands at 29%, "Deportivo Garcilaso or draw" at 90% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Deportivo Garcilaso are tipped by our AI model in this UTC Cajamarca v Deportivo Garcilaso (71%). In the table, UTC Cajamarca (18th, 5 pts) host Deportivo Garcilaso (6th, 25 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as UTC Cajamarca – Deportivo Garcilaso. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (13.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca 0-2 Deportivo Garcilaso | 13.9% |
| UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | 13.2% |
| UTC Cajamarca 0-3 Deportivo Garcilaso | 9.9% |
| UTC Cajamarca 1-2 Deportivo Garcilaso | 9.2% |
| UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.66 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca and 2.12 for Deportivo Garcilaso, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 43%. UTC Cajamarca keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Deportivo Garcilaso in 52%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca expected goals | 0.66 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals | 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| UTC Cajamarca clean sheet | 12% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet | 52% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
UTC Cajamarca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | FC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 23, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Cienciano · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
Deportivo Garcilaso
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-4 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Universitario · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 18 | 5 | 14 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 25 | 14 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 UTC Cajamarca | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
UTC Cajamarca
No absences reported.
Deportivo Garcilaso
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
UTC Cajamarca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Duarte5/5
- M. Lliuya5/5
- A. Figuera4/5
- D. Camacho4/5
- F. Cavagna4/5
- L. Garro4/5
- M. de Jesus4/5
- A. Campos3/5
- J. Cantt3/5
- M. Ganoza3/5
- A. Munoz2/5
Deportivo Garcilaso
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Salazar5/5
- F. Castelli5/5
- P. Zubczuk5/5
- A. Gomez4/5
- A. Gonzalez4/5
- B. Da Silva4/5
- C. I. Ramos Rodriguez4/5
- F. Arancibia4/5
- K. Sandoval4/5
- X. Moreno4/5
- E. Canales3/5
Other matches in this competition
- FBC Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes UnidosOct 30, 2026
- Alianza Atletico 1-0 Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 31, 2026
- UCV Moquegua 0-0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasNov 1, 2026
- Cusco 0-1 Sport BoysNov 1, 2026
- Atletico Grau 1-3 UniversitarioNov 1, 2026
- Sport Huancayo 2-0 FBC MelgarNov 2, 2026
- Sporting Cristal 5-0 FC CajamarcaNov 2, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 ADTNov 3, 2026
- Alianza Lima 1-0 CiencianoNov 4, 2026
- Universitario 2-2 Sport BoysNov 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave UTC Cajamarca a 10% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Deportivo Garcilaso 71%. Deportivo Garcilaso are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
0-2 (13.9%), followed by 0-1 (13.2%), 0-3 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.2%) and 1-1 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The probability that both UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso score is 43%. UTC Cajamarca have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo Garcilaso 52%.
How many goals should we expect in UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model expects 2.78 goals (0.66 for UTC Cajamarca, 2.12 for Deportivo Garcilaso). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso played?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 18:15 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca.
What form are UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso in?
UTC Cajamarca: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded). Deportivo Garcilaso: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for UTC Cajamarca, 1 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (May 17, 2026).
What was the UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: UTC Cajamarca 2-3 Deportivo Garcilaso. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Deportivo Garcilaso at 71%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
How is the UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.66 for UTC Cajamarca, 2.12 for Deportivo Garcilaso) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All UTC Cajamarca predictions
- All Deportivo Garcilaso predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology