Liga MX· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)
Atlante FC vs Monterrey: 4-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atlante FC 4-2 Monterrey. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Monterrey (45%), while victory for Atlante FC was rated at only 30%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Atlante FC vs Monterrey was played on Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Liga MX). Venue: Estadio Azul, Mexico City. Before kick-off, our model gave Atlante FC a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Monterrey 45%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.2%), ahead of 0-1 (10.4%) and 1-2 (9.1%).
Atlante FC have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Monterrey have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Atlante FC score 0.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Monterrey score 0.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Atlante FC sit 14th with 8 points from 9 games, Monterrey 10th with 13 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atlante FC, 0 for Monterrey and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlante FC 1-1 Monterrey (Jul 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atlante FC or draw" stands at 55%, "Monterrey or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Monterrey are favourites for this Atlante FC v Monterrey, with a 45% win probability from our model. In the table, Atlante FC (14th, 8 pts) host Monterrey (10th, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atlante FC – Monterrey. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atlante FC 1-1 Monterrey | 12.2% |
| Atlante FC 0-1 Monterrey | 10.4% |
| Atlante FC 1-2 Monterrey | 9.1% |
| Atlante FC 1-0 Monterrey | 8.2% |
| Atlante FC 0-2 Monterrey | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.66 goals in total (1.17 for Atlante FC, 1.49 for Monterrey): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 53%. Atlante FC keep a clean sheet in 23% of scenarios, Monterrey in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atlante FC expected goals | 1.17 |
| Monterrey expected goals | 1.49 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Atlante FC clean sheet | 23% |
| Monterrey clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atlante FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Puebla · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | CF Pachuca · Liga MX | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atlas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Leon · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tigres UANL · Liga MX | 0-2 | L |
Monterrey
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cruz Azul · Liga MX | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Tigres UANL · Liga MX | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Toluca · Leagues Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Club America · Leagues Cup | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Atletico San Luis · Liga MX | 1-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 14 | 8 | 9 |
| Monterrey | 10 | 13 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Atlante FC 1-1 Monterrey | Club Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Atlante FC
No absences reported.
Monterrey
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atlante FC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Quiros5/5
- E. Pizzuto5/5
- E. Tercero5/5
- Jhojan Julio5/5
- O. Jimenez5/5
- W. Portales5/5
- L. Calzadilla4/5
- Martin Sarrafiore4/5
- C. Alfaro3/5
- L. Puente3/5
- A. Escobar2/5
Monterrey
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Salcedo4/5
- E. Andrada4/5
- H. Cuypers4/5
- J. Corona4/5
- L. Ocampos4/5
- O. Pineda4/5
- D. Rossi3/5
- G. Arteaga3/5
- O. Torres3/5
- R. Chavez3/5
- V. Guzman3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Club Tijuana 2-3 AtlasSep 26, 2026
- Cruz Azul 3-3 TolucaSep 26, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Club QueretaroSep 27, 2026
- Santos Laguna 1-0 CF PachucaSep 27, 2026
- Tigres UANL 1-0 PueblaSep 27, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-3 Atletico San LuisSep 27, 2026
- Leon 2-1 FC JuarezSep 28, 2026
- Necaxa 2-4 Club AmericaSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atlante FC vs Monterrey prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atlante FC a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Monterrey 45%. Monterrey are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 4-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Atlante FC vs Monterrey?
1-1 (12.2%), followed by 0-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Atlante FC vs Monterrey?
The probability that both Atlante FC and Monterrey score is 53%. Atlante FC have a 23% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Monterrey 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Atlante FC vs Monterrey?
The model expects 2.66 goals (1.17 for Atlante FC, 1.49 for Monterrey). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Atlante FC vs Monterrey played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Azul, Mexico City.
What form are Atlante FC and Monterrey in?
Atlante FC: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded). Monterrey: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atlante FC and Monterrey?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atlante FC, 0 for Monterrey and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlante FC 1-1 Monterrey (Jul 4, 2026).
What was the Atlante FC vs Monterrey result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atlante FC 4-2 Monterrey. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Monterrey (45%), while victory for Atlante FC was rated at only 30%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Atlante FC vs Monterrey prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.17 for Atlante FC, 1.49 for Monterrey) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atlante FC predictions
- All Monterrey predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology