Liga MX· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 04:00 (UK time)
Club Tijuana vs Atlas: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Club Tijuana 2-3 Atlas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Club Tijuana (48%), while victory for Atlas was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
Match analysis
Club Tijuana vs Atlas was played on Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Liga MX). Venue: Estadio Caliente , Tijuana. Before kick-off, our model gave Club Tijuana a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atlas 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.7%), ahead of 1-1 (12.7%) and 0-0 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Club Tijuana have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Atlas have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Club Tijuana score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Atlas score 1.40 and concede 2.00. In the table, Club Tijuana sit 6th with 14 points from 8 games, Atlas 9th with 14 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Club Tijuana, 2 for Atlas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlas 2-1 Club Tijuana (Mar 5, 2026). In double chance terms, "Club Tijuana or draw" stands at 75%, "Atlas or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Club Tijuana are tipped by our AI model in this Club Tijuana v Atlas (47%). In the table, Club Tijuana (6th, 14 pts) host Atlas (9th, 14 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Club Tijuana – Atlas. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Club Tijuana 1-0 Atlas | 13.7% |
| Club Tijuana 1-1 Atlas | 12.7% |
| Club Tijuana 0-0 Atlas | 9.9% |
| Club Tijuana 2-0 Atlas | 9.5% |
| Club Tijuana 0-1 Atlas | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.31 goals in total (1.38 for Club Tijuana, 0.93 for Atlas): over 2.5 goals has a 41% probability and both teams to score 45%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Club Tijuana keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Atlas in 25%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Club Tijuana expected goals | 1.38 |
| Atlas expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Club Tijuana clean sheet | 40% |
| Atlas clean sheet | 25% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Club Tijuana
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | CF Pachuca · Liga MX | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cruz Azul · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
Atlas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 2-5 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cruz Azul · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| Atlas | 9 | 14 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Atlas 2-1 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Club Tijuana 2-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Club Tijuana 3-4 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Club Tijuana 3-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Atlas 0-0 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Club Tijuana
No absences reported.
Atlas
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Club Tijuana
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Gomez5/5
- A. Preciado5/5
- A. Rodriguez5/5
- G. Mora5/5
- I. Tona5/5
- J. Porozo5/5
- R. Arciga4/5
- A. Vega3/5
- M. El Ghezouani3/5
- R. Fernandez3/5
- D. Abreu2/5
Atlas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Vargas5/5
- F. Monzon5/5
- J. Sanchez5/5
- L. Esteves5/5
- M. Capasso5/5
- A. Gonzalez4/5
- Duk3/5
- M. Valenzuela3/5
- P. Ramirez3/5
- R. Schlegel3/5
- A. Frias2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atlante FC 4-2 MonterreySep 26, 2026
- Cruz Azul 3-3 TolucaSep 26, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Club QueretaroSep 27, 2026
- Santos Laguna 1-0 CF PachucaSep 27, 2026
- Tigres UANL 1-0 PueblaSep 27, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-3 Atletico San LuisSep 27, 2026
- Leon 2-1 FC JuarezSep 28, 2026
- Necaxa 2-4 Club AmericaSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Club Tijuana vs Atlas prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Club Tijuana a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atlas 25%. Club Tijuana are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Club Tijuana vs Atlas?
1-0 (13.7%), followed by 1-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%) and 0-1 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in Club Tijuana vs Atlas?
The probability that both Club Tijuana and Atlas score is 45%. Club Tijuana have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atlas 25%.
How many goals should we expect in Club Tijuana vs Atlas?
The model expects 2.31 goals (1.38 for Club Tijuana, 0.93 for Atlas). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 41%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Club Tijuana vs Atlas played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Caliente , Tijuana.
What form are Club Tijuana and Atlas in?
Club Tijuana: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Atlas: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Club Tijuana and Atlas?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Club Tijuana, 2 for Atlas and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atlas 2-1 Club Tijuana (Mar 5, 2026).
What was the Club Tijuana vs Atlas result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Club Tijuana 2-3 Atlas. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Club Tijuana (48%), while victory for Atlas was rated at only 25%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
How is the Club Tijuana vs Atlas prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.38 for Club Tijuana, 0.93 for Atlas) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Club Tijuana predictions
- All Atlas predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology