Liga MX· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 23:50 (UK time)
Cruz Azul vs Toluca: 3-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cruz Azul 3-3 Toluca. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cruz Azul (37%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
Match analysis
Cruz Azul and Toluca met on Saturday, September 26, 2026, a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. Before kick-off, our model gave Cruz Azul a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Toluca 37%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cruz Azul have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Toluca have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Cruz Azul score 1.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Toluca score 2.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Cruz Azul sit 5th with 15 points from 9 games, Toluca 1st with 19 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Cruz Azul, 0 for Toluca and 3 draws. The most recent ended Toluca 1-3 Cruz Azul (Jul 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cruz Azul or draw" stands at 63%, "Toluca or draw" at 63% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Cruz Azul and Toluca meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 27%). On recent form, Cruz Azul have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Toluca are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cruz Azul – Toluca. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca | 12.7% |
| Cruz Azul 1-0 Toluca | 9.9% |
| Cruz Azul 0-1 Toluca | 9.9% |
| Cruz Azul 2-1 Toluca | 8.1% |
| Cruz Azul 1-2 Toluca | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.28 expected goals for Cruz Azul and 1.28 for Toluca, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 47% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Cruz Azul keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Toluca in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cruz Azul expected goals | 1.28 |
| Toluca expected goals | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Cruz Azul clean sheet | 28% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cruz Azul
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Monterrey · Liga MX | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Inter Miami · Campeones Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Santos Laguna · Liga MX | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Necaxa · Liga MX | 3-1 | W |
Toluca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Santos Laguna · Liga MX | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Puebla · Liga MX | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlas · Liga MX | 5-2 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Monterrey · Leagues Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Leon · Leagues Cup | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 5 | 15 | 9 |
| Toluca | 1 | 19 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Toluca 1-3 Cruz Azul | Campeón de Campeones |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Toluca 2-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Cruz Azul
No absences reported.
Toluca
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cruz Azul
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Palavecino5/5
- C. Rodriguez5/5
- J. Marquez5/5
- J. Orozco5/5
- K. Mier5/5
- W. Ditta5/5
- A. Garcia4/5
- J. Paradela4/5
- N. Ibanez4/5
- O. Campos4/5
- E. Lira3/5
Toluca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Pereira5/5
- F. Vinas5/5
- J. Gallardo5/5
- N. Castro5/5
- A. Vega4/5
- Bruno Mendez4/5
- E. del Villar4/5
- F. Romero4/5
- D. Barbosa3/5
- Helinho3/5
- J. Angulo3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atlante FC 4-2 MonterreySep 26, 2026
- Club Tijuana 2-3 AtlasSep 26, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Club QueretaroSep 27, 2026
- Santos Laguna 1-0 CF PachucaSep 27, 2026
- Tigres UANL 1-0 PueblaSep 27, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-3 Atletico San LuisSep 27, 2026
- Leon 2-1 FC JuarezSep 28, 2026
- Necaxa 2-4 Club AmericaSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cruz Azul a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Toluca 37%. Cruz Azul are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
1-1 (12.7%), followed by 1-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.1%) and 1-2 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
The probability that both Cruz Azul and Toluca score is 52%. Cruz Azul have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toluca 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
The model expects 2.56 goals (1.28 for Cruz Azul, 1.28 for Toluca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 47%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is Cruz Azul vs Toluca played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 23:50 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City.
What form are Cruz Azul and Toluca in?
Cruz Azul: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded). Toluca: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cruz Azul and Toluca?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Cruz Azul, 0 for Toluca and 3 draws. The most recent ended Toluca 1-3 Cruz Azul (Jul 26, 2026).
What was the Cruz Azul vs Toluca result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cruz Azul 3-3 Toluca. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cruz Azul (37%), while a draw was rated at only 27%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (47%): missed.
How is the Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.28 for Cruz Azul, 1.28 for Toluca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cruz Azul predictions
- All Toluca predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology