Liga MX· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 23:50 (UK time)
Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Liga MX: the Cruz Azul vs Toluca match is scheduled on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 23:50 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. Our model makes Toluca clear favourites: a 82% chance of winning, against 10% for the draw and 8% for Cruz Azul. On the correct score, 1-3 comes out on top (6.7%), followed by 1-4 (6.7%) and 1-5 (5.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cruz Azul have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Toluca are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 1. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Cruz Azul score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Toluca score 2.00 and concede 0.20. In the table, Cruz Azul sit 4th with 15 points from 9 games, Toluca 1st with 19 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cruz Azul, 0 for Toluca and 1 draw. The most recent ended Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul (Feb 7, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cruz Azul or draw" stands at 18%, "Toluca or draw" at 92% and "no draw" at 90%.
In short : Toluca are favourites for this Cruz Azul v Toluca, with a 82% win probability from our model. On recent form, Cruz Azul are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Toluca are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cruz Azul – Toluca. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (6.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cruz Azul 1-3 Toluca | 6.7% |
| Cruz Azul 1-4 Toluca | 6.7% |
| Cruz Azul 1-5 Toluca | 5.3% |
| Cruz Azul 1-2 Toluca | 5.0% |
| Cruz Azul 2-3 Toluca | 4.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.43 expected goals for Cruz Azul and 4.00 for Toluca, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 91% and "both teams to score" at 75%. Goals look likely in this one. Cruz Azul keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Toluca in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cruz Azul expected goals | 1.43 |
| Toluca expected goals | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 97% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 79% |
| Cruz Azul clean sheet | 2% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cruz Azul
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | New York City FC · Leagues Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union · Leagues Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 2-3 | L |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Toluca · Campeón de Campeones | 3-1 | W |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Puebla · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
Toluca
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Leon · Leagues Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | FC Juarez · Liga MX | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Austin · Leagues Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 4 | 15 | 9 |
| Toluca | 1 | 19 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Cruz Azul
No absences reported.
Toluca
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cruz Azul
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Piovi5/5
- J. Marquez5/5
- J. Orozco5/5
- A. Palavecino4/5
- C. Rodriguez4/5
- E. Lira4/5
- G. Fernandez4/5
- J. Paradela4/5
- K. Mier4/5
- W. Ditta4/5
- O. Campos3/5
Toluca
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Helinho4/5
- A. Vega3/5
- Bruno Mendez3/5
- F. Pereira3/5
- F. Romero3/5
- F. Vinas3/5
- H. Gonzalez3/5
- B. A. Garcia Caprizo2/5
- E. del Villar2/5
- Everardo López2/5
- Federico Pereira2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Atlante FC – MonterreySep 26, 2026
- Club Tijuana – AtlasSep 26, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas – Club QueretaroSep 27, 2026
- Santos Laguna – CF PachucaSep 27, 2026
- Tigres UANL – PueblaSep 27, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Atletico San LuisSep 27, 2026
- Leon – FC JuarezSep 28, 2026
- Necaxa – Club AmericaSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction?
Our AI gives Cruz Azul a 8% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Toluca 82%. Toluca are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
1-3 (6.7%), followed by 1-4 (6.7%), 1-5 (5.3%), 1-2 (5.0%) and 2-3 (4.8%).
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
The probability that both Cruz Azul and Toluca score is 75%. Cruz Azul have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Toluca 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
The model expects 5.43 goals (1.43 for Cruz Azul, 4.00 for Toluca). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 97%, over 2.5 goals 91%, over 3.5 goals 79%.
When and where is Cruz Azul vs Toluca played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 23:50 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Banorte, Mexico City.
What form are Cruz Azul and Toluca in?
Cruz Azul: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Toluca: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 1 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cruz Azul and Toluca?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Cruz Azul, 0 for Toluca and 1 draw. The most recent ended Toluca 1-1 Cruz Azul (Feb 7, 2026).
How is the Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.43 for Cruz Azul, 4.00 for Toluca) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cruz Azul predictions
- All Toluca predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology