Liga MX· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)
Leon vs FC Juarez: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Leon 2-1 FC Juarez. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Leon at 61%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
Match analysis
Leon and FC Juarez met on Monday, September 28, 2026, a Liga MX fixture. Venue: Estadio Leon, Leon. Before kick-off, our model gave Leon a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FC Juarez 16%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.0%), followed by 2-0 (12.3%) and 1-1 (10.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Leon have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 6. FC Juarez have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 10. Leon therefore arrive in far better shape than FC Juarez. On average Leon score 1.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; FC Juarez score 0.80 and concede 2.00. In the table, Leon sit 7th with 14 points from 9 games, FC Juarez 18th with 3 points from 9. 11 places separate the two sides.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Leon, 1 for FC Juarez and 1 draw. The most recent ended Leon 3-1 FC Juarez (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Leon or draw" stands at 84%, "FC Juarez or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Leon to edge FC Juarez (61% probability). On recent form, Leon have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while FC Juarez are struggling (4 losses in 5). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 45%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Leon – FC Juarez. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon 1-0 FC Juarez | 14.0% |
| Leon 2-0 FC Juarez | 12.3% |
| Leon 1-1 FC Juarez | 10.8% |
| Leon 2-1 FC Juarez | 9.5% |
| Leon 0-0 FC Juarez | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.76 expected goals for Leon and 0.77 for FC Juarez, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 46% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Leon keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, FC Juarez in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Leon expected goals | 1.76 |
| FC Juarez expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% |
| Leon clean sheet | 46% |
| FC Juarez clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Leon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Club Queretaro · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Atletico San Luis · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Club America · Leagues Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toluca · Leagues Cup | 0-2 | L |
FC Juarez
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tigres UANL · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Santos Laguna · Liga MX | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | CF Pachuca · Liga MX | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 7 | 14 | 9 |
| FC Juarez | 18 | 3 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Leon 3-1 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| Sep 27, 2025 | FC Juarez 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Leon 1-0 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| Oct 20, 2024 | FC Juarez 2-3 Leon | Liga MX |
| Apr 28, 2024 | FC Juarez 1-1 Leon | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Leon
No absences reported.
FC Juarez
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Leon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Arcila5/5
- J. Cortizo5/5
- O. Garcia5/5
- D. Cambindo4/5
- I. Moreno4/5
- I. Rodriguez4/5
- J. Guevara4/5
- J. Romana4/5
- R. Echeverria4/5
- F. Beltran Cruz3/5
- S. Vegas3/5
FC Juarez
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Garcia5/5
- G. Sepulveda5/5
- J. Murillo5/5
- J. Rodriguez5/5
- O. Estupinan5/5
- Rodrigo Dourado5/5
- S. Jurado5/5
- F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin4/5
- J. Aquino4/5
- J. M. Torres Ramirez I.4/5
- Monchu3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atlante FC 4-2 MonterreySep 26, 2026
- Club Tijuana 2-3 AtlasSep 26, 2026
- Cruz Azul 3-3 TolucaSep 26, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 Club QueretaroSep 27, 2026
- Santos Laguna 1-0 CF PachucaSep 27, 2026
- Tigres UANL 1-0 PueblaSep 27, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-3 Atletico San LuisSep 27, 2026
- Necaxa 2-4 Club AmericaSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Leon vs FC Juarez prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Leon a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FC Juarez 16%. Leon are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Leon vs FC Juarez?
1-0 (14.0%), followed by 2-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.5%) and 0-0 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in Leon vs FC Juarez?
The probability that both Leon and FC Juarez score is 45%. Leon have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Juarez 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Leon vs FC Juarez?
The model expects 2.53 goals (1.76 for Leon, 0.77 for FC Juarez). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.
When and where is Leon vs FC Juarez played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Leon, Leon.
What form are Leon and FC Juarez in?
Leon: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded). FC Juarez: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Leon and FC Juarez?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Leon, 1 for FC Juarez and 1 draw. The most recent ended Leon 3-1 FC Juarez (Apr 19, 2026).
What was the Leon vs FC Juarez result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Leon 2-1 FC Juarez. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Leon at 61%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (9.5%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (46%): missed.
How is the Leon vs FC Juarez prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.76 for Leon, 0.77 for FC Juarez) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.