Liga MX· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)
Leon vs FC Juarez prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Liga MX: Leon vs FC Juarez kicks off on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time). Venue: Estadio León, Leon. Our model makes Leon clear favourites: a 68% chance of winning, against 20% for the draw and 12% for FC Juarez. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (13.6%), followed by 2-0 (13.6%) and 1-1 (9.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Leon have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, FC Juarez have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Leon therefore arrive in far better shape than FC Juarez. On average Leon score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; FC Juarez score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Leon sit 7th with 14 points from 9 games, FC Juarez 18th with 3 points from 9. 11 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Leon, 1 for FC Juarez and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leon 3-1 FC Juarez (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Leon or draw" stands at 88%, "FC Juarez or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Leon to edge FC Juarez (68% probability). On recent form, Leon have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while FC Juarez have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 43%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Leon – FC Juarez. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon 1-0 FC Juarez | 13.6% |
| Leon 2-0 FC Juarez | 13.6% |
| Leon 1-1 FC Juarez | 9.4% |
| Leon 2-1 FC Juarez | 9.4% |
| Leon 3-0 FC Juarez | 9.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.99 expected goals for Leon and 0.69 for FC Juarez, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Leon keep a clean sheet in 50% of scenarios, FC Juarez in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Leon expected goals | 1.99 |
| FC Juarez expected goals | 0.69 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Leon clean sheet | 50% |
| FC Juarez clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Leon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toluca · Leagues Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Real Salt Lake · Leagues Cup | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa · Liga MX | 2-1 | W |
FC Juarez
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps · Leagues Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Minnesota United FC · Leagues Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 1, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas · Liga MX | 1-5 | L |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas · Liga MX | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Puebla · Liga MX | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 7 | 14 | 9 |
| FC Juarez | 18 | 3 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Leon 3-1 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| Sep 27, 2025 | FC Juarez 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Leon
No absences reported.
FC Juarez
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Leon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Cambindo5/5
- F. Beltran Cruz5/5
- J. Guevara5/5
- O. Garcia5/5
- S. Vegas5/5
- D. Arcila4/5
- I. Rodriguez4/5
- J. Cortizo4/5
- J. Romana4/5
- R. Echeverria4/5
- I. Moreno3/5
FC Juarez
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Guilherme Castilho5/5
- J. Murillo5/5
- S. Jurado5/5
- D. Garcia4/5
- H. Ortega4/5
- J. Aquino4/5
- J. Rodriguez4/5
- O. Estupinan4/5
- A. Mayorga3/5
- F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin3/5
- G. Sepulveda3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Atlante FC – MonterreySep 26, 2026
- Club Tijuana – AtlasSep 26, 2026
- Cruz Azul – TolucaSep 26, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas – Club QueretaroSep 27, 2026
- Santos Laguna – CF PachucaSep 27, 2026
- Tigres UANL – PueblaSep 27, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Atletico San LuisSep 27, 2026
- Necaxa – Club AmericaSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Leon vs FC Juarez prediction?
Our AI gives Leon a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FC Juarez 12%. Leon are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Leon vs FC Juarez?
1-0 (13.6%), followed by 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (9.0%).
Will both teams score in Leon vs FC Juarez?
The probability that both Leon and FC Juarez score is 43%. Leon have a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FC Juarez 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Leon vs FC Juarez?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.99 for Leon, 0.69 for FC Juarez). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Leon vs FC Juarez played?
Monday, September 28, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio León, Leon.
What form are Leon and FC Juarez in?
Leon: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). FC Juarez: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Leon and FC Juarez?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Leon, 1 for FC Juarez and 0 draws. The most recent ended Leon 3-1 FC Juarez (Apr 19, 2026).
How is the Leon vs FC Juarez prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.99 for Leon, 0.69 for FC Juarez) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.