Liga MX· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 04:10 (UK time)
Tigres UANL vs Puebla prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Liga MX: Tigres UANL vs Puebla kicks off on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 04:10 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Universitario, Monterey. Puebla start as favourites with a 45% chance of victory; Tigres UANL are given 29% and the draw 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%) and 1-2 (9.1%).
Tigres UANL have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 3 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Puebla have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Tigres UANL score 0.60 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Puebla score 1.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Tigres UANL sit 16th with 7 points from 9 games, Puebla 8th with 14 points from 9. 8 places separate the two sides.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tigres UANL, 1 for Puebla and 0 draws. The most recent ended Puebla 3-1 Tigres UANL (Mar 5, 2026). In double chance terms, "Tigres UANL or draw" stands at 55%, "Puebla or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Our model backs Puebla to edge Tigres UANL (45% probability). In the table, Tigres UANL (16th, 7 pts) host Puebla (8th, 14 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Tigres UANL – Puebla. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tigres UANL 1-1 Puebla | 12.3% |
| Tigres UANL 0-1 Puebla | 10.8% |
| Tigres UANL 1-2 Puebla | 9.1% |
| Tigres UANL 1-0 Puebla | 8.4% |
| Tigres UANL 0-2 Puebla | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.14 expected goals for Tigres UANL and 1.47 for Puebla, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Tigres UANL keep a clean sheet in 23% of scenarios, Puebla in 32%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Tigres UANL expected goals | 1.14 |
| Puebla expected goals | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Tigres UANL clean sheet | 23% |
| Puebla clean sheet | 32% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Tigres UANL
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Juarez · Liga MX | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monterrey · Liga MX | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Necaxa · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Santos Laguna · Liga MX | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 2-0 | W |
Puebla
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlante FC · Liga MX | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Toluca · Liga MX | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Necaxa · Liga MX | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Club America · Liga MX | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santos Laguna · Liga MX | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 16 | 7 | 9 |
| Puebla | 8 | 14 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Puebla 3-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Tigres UANL 7-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
Out and doubtful
Tigres UANL
No absences reported.
Puebla
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Tigres UANL
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Franco5/5
- J. Brunetta5/5
- J. Garza5/5
- R. Aguirre5/5
- D. Lainez4/5
- Joaquim4/5
- N. Guzman4/5
- Romulo4/5
- F. Gorriaran3/5
- R. Monreal3/5
- D. A. Sanchez Guevara2/5
Puebla
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Organista5/5
- B. Garnica5/5
- C. Baltazar5/5
- D. Gutierrez5/5
- F. Almada5/5
- F. Monarrez5/5
- J. Vargas5/5
- I. Moreno3/5
- K. Velasco3/5
- S. Sanabria3/5
- A. Ramirez2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Atlante FC – MonterreySep 26, 2026
- Club Tijuana – AtlasSep 26, 2026
- Cruz Azul – TolucaSep 26, 2026
- Guadalajara Chivas – Club QueretaroSep 27, 2026
- Santos Laguna – CF PachucaSep 27, 2026
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Atletico San LuisSep 27, 2026
- Leon – FC JuarezSep 28, 2026
- Necaxa – Club AmericaSep 28, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Tigres UANL vs Puebla prediction?
Our AI gives Tigres UANL a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Puebla 45%. Puebla are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Tigres UANL vs Puebla?
1-1 (12.3%), followed by 0-1 (10.8%), 1-2 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Puebla?
The probability that both Tigres UANL and Puebla score is 52%. Tigres UANL have a 23% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Puebla 32%.
How many goals should we expect in Tigres UANL vs Puebla?
The model expects 2.61 goals (1.14 for Tigres UANL, 1.47 for Puebla). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Tigres UANL vs Puebla played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 04:10 (UK time), Liga MX. Venue: Estadio Universitario, Monterey.
What form are Tigres UANL and Puebla in?
Tigres UANL: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 3 conceded). Puebla: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Tigres UANL and Puebla?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Tigres UANL, 1 for Puebla and 0 draws. The most recent ended Puebla 3-1 Tigres UANL (Mar 5, 2026).
How is the Tigres UANL vs Puebla prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.14 for Tigres UANL, 1.47 for Puebla) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Tigres UANL predictions
- All Puebla predictions
- Liga MX predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology