Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Auxerre vs Nice: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Auxerre 1-0 Nice. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Auxerre was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): correct.
Match analysis
Auxerre vs Nice was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 4). Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. Before kick-off, our model gave Auxerre a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nice 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.4%), ahead of 1-1 (11.7%) and 2-0 (10.9%).
Auxerre have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 12. Nice have not won any of their last 5 matches (4 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 1 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Auxerre score 1.20 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Nice score 0.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Auxerre sit 18th with 0 points from 3 games, Nice 15th with 2 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Auxerre have averaged 1.45 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.98 for Nice.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Auxerre, 1 for Nice and 0 draws. The most recent ended Auxerre 2-1 Nice (May 10, 2026). Auxerre out or doubtful: A. Diousse, B. Okoh, M. Senaya, T. Siwe and S. Fofana. Nice: L. Abergel, M. Bombito, H. Boudaoui, A. Mendy and M. Sanson. In double chance terms, "Auxerre or draw" stands at 80%, "Nice or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Auxerre – Nice. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Auxerre 1-0 Nice | 13.4% |
| Auxerre 1-1 Nice | 11.7% |
| Auxerre 2-0 Nice | 10.9% |
| Auxerre 2-1 Nice | 9.5% |
| Auxerre 0-0 Nice | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.49 goals in total (1.62 for Auxerre, 0.87 for Nice): over 2.5 goals has a 45% probability and both teams to score 47%. Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Nice in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Auxerre expected goals | 1.62 |
| Nice expected goals | 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 42% |
| Nice clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Auxerre
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Lyon · Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 2-5 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Nice
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hull City · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cagliari · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 18 | 0 | 3 |
| Nice | 15 | 2 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Auxerre 2-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Nice 3-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Auxerre
- A. Diousse (out)
- B. Okoh (out)
- M. Senaya (out)
- T. Siwe (out)
- S. Fofana (out)
Nice
- L. Abergel (out)
- M. Bombito (out)
- H. Boudaoui (out)
- A. Mendy (out)
- M. Sanson (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Rennes 1-0 MarseilleSep 11, 2026
- Strasbourg 1-1 MonacoSep 12, 2026
- Paris FC 0-0 LyonSep 12, 2026
- Le Havre 0-0 AngersSep 12, 2026
- Lorient 2-2 ToulouseSep 12, 2026
- Lille 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 13, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 LensSep 13, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint GermainSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Auxerre vs Nice prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Auxerre a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nice 20%. Auxerre are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Auxerre vs Nice?
1-0 (13.4%), followed by 1-1 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.5%) and 0-0 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nice?
The probability that both Auxerre and Nice score is 47%. Auxerre have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Nice 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Auxerre vs Nice?
The model expects 2.49 goals (1.62 for Auxerre, 0.87 for Nice). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Auxerre vs Nice played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 4. Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre.
What form are Auxerre and Nice in?
Auxerre: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 12 conceded). Nice: 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Auxerre, 1 for Nice and 0 draws. The most recent ended Auxerre 2-1 Nice (May 10, 2026).
What was the Auxerre vs Nice result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Auxerre 1-0 Nice. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Auxerre was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (45%): correct.
How is the Auxerre vs Nice prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Auxerre, 0.87 for Nice) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.