Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Lille vs Estac Troyes: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lille at 48%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
Match analysis
Lille and Estac Troyes met on Sunday, September 13, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Before kick-off, our model gave Lille a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estac Troyes 28%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lille have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Estac Troyes have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 6 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Lille score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Estac Troyes score 1.20 and concede 1.80. In the table, Lille sit 5th with 7 points from 3 games, Estac Troyes 10th with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lille have averaged 1.11 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.83 for Estac Troyes.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw. Lille out or doubtful: H. Igamane and A. Bodart. Estac Troyes: I. Boura, P. Gozzi, Y. Titi and M. Ifnaoui. In double chance terms, "Lille or draw" stands at 72%, "Estac Troyes or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 76%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lille – Estac Troyes. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lille 1-1 Estac Troyes | 11.3% |
| Lille 2-1 Estac Troyes | 9.5% |
| Lille 1-0 Estac Troyes | 9.3% |
| Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes | 7.8% |
| Lille 1-2 Estac Troyes | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.68 expected goals for Lille and 1.21 for Estac Troyes, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Lille keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Estac Troyes in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lille expected goals | 1.68 |
| Estac Troyes expected goals | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Lille clean sheet | 30% |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Estac Troyes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 2-6 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Estac Troyes | 10 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw.
Out and doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamane (out)
- A. Bodart (out)
Estac Troyes
- I. Boura (out)
- P. Gozzi (out)
- Y. Titi (out)
- M. Ifnaoui (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Rennes 1-0 MarseilleSep 11, 2026
- Strasbourg 1-1 MonacoSep 12, 2026
- Paris FC 0-0 LyonSep 12, 2026
- Le Havre 0-0 AngersSep 12, 2026
- Auxerre 1-0 NiceSep 12, 2026
- Lorient 2-2 ToulouseSep 12, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 LensSep 13, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint GermainSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lille a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estac Troyes 28%. Lille are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
1-1 (11.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.8%) and 1-2 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Lille vs Estac Troyes?
The probability that both Lille and Estac Troyes score is 57%. Lille have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estac Troyes 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Lille vs Estac Troyes?
The model expects 2.89 goals (1.68 for Lille, 1.21 for Estac Troyes). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Lille vs Estac Troyes played?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 4. Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille.
What form are Lille and Estac Troyes in?
Lille: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Estac Troyes: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Estac Troyes?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw.
What was the Lille vs Estac Troyes result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lille at 48%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
How is the Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.68 for Lille, 1.21 for Estac Troyes) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lille predictions
- All Estac Troyes predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology