Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Paris FC vs Lyon: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Paris FC 0-0 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Paris FC (54%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): missed.
Match analysis
Paris FC vs Lyon was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 4). Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Paris. Before kick-off, our model gave Paris FC a 54% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lyon 26%. The most likely correct score is 2-1 (8.5%), ahead of 1-1 (7.4%) and 2-2 (6.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Paris FC have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Paris FC score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Lyon score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Paris FC sit 3rd with 7 points from 3 games, Lyon 4th with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Paris FC have averaged 2.09 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.77 for Lyon.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Lyon and 2 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 1-1 Paris FC (Mar 8, 2026). Paris FC out or doubtful: Otavio, N. Sangui, J. Ikone and E. Mbemba. Lyon: J. Duranville, A. Gomes Rodriguez, A. Hamdani, N. Kamara and S. Kango. In double chance terms, "Paris FC or draw" stands at 74%, "Lyon or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 80%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Paris FC – Lyon. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 35% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paris FC 2-1 Lyon | 8.5% |
| Paris FC 1-1 Lyon | 7.4% |
| Paris FC 2-2 Lyon | 6.8% |
| Paris FC 3-1 Lyon | 6.6% |
| Paris FC 1-2 Lyon | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.92 goals in total (2.32 for Paris FC, 1.60 for Lyon): over 2.5 goals has a 75% probability and both teams to score 72%. Everything points to an open game. Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Lyon in 10%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Paris FC expected goals | 2.32 |
| Lyon expected goals | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 20% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 10% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Paris FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estac Troyes · Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Angers · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 · Club Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toulouse · Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Lyon | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Lyon 1-1 Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Paris FC 3-3 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Paris FC
- Otavio (out)
- N. Sangui (out)
- J. Ikone (out)
- E. Mbemba (out)
Lyon
- J. Duranville (out)
- A. Gomes Rodriguez (out)
- A. Hamdani (out)
- N. Kamara (out)
- S. Kango (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Rennes 1-0 MarseilleSep 11, 2026
- Strasbourg 1-1 MonacoSep 12, 2026
- Le Havre 0-0 AngersSep 12, 2026
- Auxerre 1-0 NiceSep 12, 2026
- Lorient 2-2 ToulouseSep 12, 2026
- Lille 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 13, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 LensSep 13, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint GermainSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Paris FC vs Lyon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Paris FC a 54% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lyon 26%. Paris FC are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Paris FC vs Lyon?
2-1 (8.5%), followed by 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (6.8%), 3-1 (6.6%) and 1-2 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Lyon?
The probability that both Paris FC and Lyon score is 72%. Paris FC have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lyon 10%.
How many goals should we expect in Paris FC vs Lyon?
The model expects 3.92 goals (2.32 for Paris FC, 1.60 for Lyon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 55%.
When and where is Paris FC vs Lyon played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 4. Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Paris.
What form are Paris FC and Lyon in?
Paris FC: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Lyon: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Lyon?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Lyon and 2 draws. The most recent ended Lyon 1-1 Paris FC (Mar 8, 2026).
What was the Paris FC vs Lyon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Paris FC 0-0 Lyon. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Paris FC (54%), while a draw was rated at only 20%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): missed.
How is the Paris FC vs Lyon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.32 for Paris FC, 1.60 for Lyon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.