Ligue 1· Kick-off : Friday, September 11, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Rennes vs Marseille: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Rennes 1-0 Marseille. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Rennes at 84%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (82%): missed.
Match analysis
Rennes and Marseille met on Friday, September 11, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes. Before kick-off, our model gave Rennes a 84% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Marseille 6%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (8.5%), followed by 3-1 (8.0%) and 2-0 (7.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Rennes have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Marseille have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Rennes score 2.00 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Marseille score 2.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Rennes sit 5th with 7 points from 3 games, Marseille 10th with 3 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Rennes have averaged 2.00 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.63 for Marseille.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Rennes, 2 for Marseille and 0 draws. The most recent ended Marseille 3-1 Rennes (May 17, 2026). Rennes out or doubtful: A. Ait Boudlal and D. Cisse. Marseille: G. Kondogbia and T. Nnadi. In double chance terms, "Rennes or draw" stands at 94%, "Marseille or draw" at 16% and "no draw" at 90%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Rennes – Marseille. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rennes 3-0 Marseille | 8.5% |
| Rennes 3-1 Marseille | 8.0% |
| Rennes 2-0 Marseille | 7.3% |
| Rennes 4-0 Marseille | 7.3% |
| Rennes 2-1 Marseille | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.46 expected goals for Rennes and 0.94 for Marseille, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 82% and "both teams to score" at 59%. Goals look likely in this one. Rennes keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Marseille in 3%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Rennes expected goals | 3.46 |
| Marseille expected goals | 0.94 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 64% |
| Rennes clean sheet | 39% |
| Marseille clean sheet | 3% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Rennes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sunderland · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentford · Club Friendlies | 2-4 | L |
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC · Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club · Club Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Marseille | 10 | 3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Marseille 3-1 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Marseille 3-0 Rennes | Coupe de France |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Rennes 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Rennes
- A. Ait Boudlal (out)
- D. Cisse (out)
Marseille
- G. Kondogbia (out)
- T. Nnadi (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Strasbourg 1-1 MonacoSep 12, 2026
- Paris FC 0-0 LyonSep 12, 2026
- Le Havre 0-0 AngersSep 12, 2026
- Auxerre 1-0 NiceSep 12, 2026
- Lorient 2-2 ToulouseSep 12, 2026
- Lille 2-0 Estac TroyesSep 13, 2026
- Le Mans 2-2 LensSep 13, 2026
- Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint GermainSep 13, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Rennes vs Marseille prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Rennes a 84% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Marseille 6%. Rennes are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Rennes vs Marseille?
3-0 (8.5%), followed by 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.3%), 4-0 (7.3%) and 2-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Marseille?
The probability that both Rennes and Marseille score is 59%. Rennes have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Marseille 3%.
How many goals should we expect in Rennes vs Marseille?
The model expects 4.40 goals (3.46 for Rennes, 0.94 for Marseille). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 82%, over 3.5 goals 64%.
When and where is Rennes vs Marseille played?
Friday, September 11, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 4. Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes.
What form are Rennes and Marseille in?
Rennes: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 11 conceded). Marseille: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Marseille?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Rennes, 2 for Marseille and 0 draws. The most recent ended Marseille 3-1 Rennes (May 17, 2026).
What was the Rennes vs Marseille result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Rennes 1-0 Marseille. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Rennes at 84%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.2%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (82%): missed.
How is the Rennes vs Marseille prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.46 for Rennes, 0.94 for Marseille) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Rennes predictions
- All Marseille predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology